Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be. But NC barely moved relative to the nation between '12 and '16, whereas TX moved 9 points left & GA moved 5 points left. GA might actually be the closer call. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: PA Gov. Wolf (D) proposes extended timeframe to begin processing ballots to 21 days before election. Currently ballots can’… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the flip side, 68% of MN's votes were cast in counties where >60% of adult citizens are non-college whites. Trump won them 53%-38%. In WI, *75%* of votes were cast in such counties. Trump won them 54%-39%. There's still plenty of room left for Dems to fall in these places. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2016, 20% of TX's votes were cast in counties where >60% of adult citizens are non-college whites. Trump won them 77%-20%. In GA, 33% of votes were cast in such counties. Trump won them 73%-24%. There's just not a lot more room for Dems to fall in these places. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: College campuses are closed and students don't know where they'll be on Election Day. That's a problem for the Biden cam… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: First fully post-convention poll shows a bit of a bounce for Trump. Many other polls surely to follow. https://t.co/JQt5… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Cletus_D_Fetus Not talking about 2020 here — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JFTMichigan yeah, meant to paint NE02 blue, not NE statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear: the numbers above on my @270toWin map reflect current, not future, EV apportionment. Also, #NE02 should be solid blue (not NE statewide). And it's not 100% clear NE will have three CDs in 2024/2028...if just two, probably no blue-winnable #NE02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thinking about Rust/Sun Belt inversion on this rainy Saturday. If current reapportionment projections were to hold, imo this could be the most likely route to an evenly split Electoral College in 2024/2028. https://t.co/RZTqGqDH7G — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LevelInvestor yes — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My estimates for 2016 vote share of non-college whites by battleground (broadly defined): ME 2nd CD: 72% ME: 64% IA: 63% WI: 61% NH: 57% OH: 56% MI: 54% MN: 54% PA: 52% NE 2nd CD: 45% NC: 44% AZ: 44% NV: 43% FL: 43% GA: 38% TX: 34% National: 44% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @galendruke: The Republican Secretary of State in Ohio has been a loud voice of reason on the security of mail voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Minnesota’s projected share of white college grads + non-whites: 51% Nebraska’s 2nd CD: 60% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few weeks late, but great dispatch by @JuliaTerruso. https://t.co/tuljiOyaRa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Honest question: with a 9/23 court-mandated deadline to implement this order and a 10/6 TX voter registration deadline, how many new registrations will this ruling actually generate? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kkondik I’d venture 150 million+ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I’d also wager that Biden ultimately wins a higher share of the vote in Arizona than Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One wager I’d make today: regardless of the outcome, Biden will win a higher share of the vote in Nebraska’s 2nd CD (which voted for Trump in ‘16) than Minnesota (which voted for Clinton). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: I've said this before, but part of what's confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump's Electoral Co… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, TX/GA are clear cases where someone like Bloomberg's level of involvement would be a key variable. But since he exited the race, there's been little reported about his level of fall commitment (beyond House races). https://t.co/FeaLSOg0vi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of this effort has been happening for months. But any statewide push in TX requires massive $$, and while I think the Biden camp has been wise to laser-focus on AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI, I'm very curious how much outside $$ will ultimately be spent in TX. https://t.co/FgYMT0QbXZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine if the (mostly D) folks behind the futile effort to ditch the Electoral College for a national popular vote instead launched a massive registration/turnout effort in Texas (38 EVs), where 4.4 million eligible non-whites didn't vote in 2016 and Trump's margin was 807,179. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: as much as I watch all the state/national polls that generate all the buzz, I’ll be watching these district polls like a hawk. So far, I haven’t seen much evidence of “the shift” part deux. Maybe it will never happen! But it’s still August. Long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The upshot for Biden: because white-working class voters have dwindled as a share of the eligible electorate *everywhere* since 2016, Trump needs to not only get back to his 2016 margins w/ these voters but significantly up their turnout to stay in the game. Possible, but tough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But as the campaign intensifies and more casual voters start tuning in, I consider Biden’s support in white-working class districts much more fragile. A lot of these politically low-engaged voters live in a local news/info ecosystem that is much Trump-friendlier than elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fast forward: today, Biden is polling spectacularly in heavily college+ suburban districts (he’s ahead in a few districts Clinton lost by 10%+!) *and* impressively overperforming Clinton in white working class districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of this polling was never publicly released, but both parties were detecting it. And a lot of statewide/national polls weren’t showing it, perhaps b/c of sparsity of PA/WI/MI polls, failure to properly weight whites by education, etc. But it turned out to be real. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As the 2016 campaign intensified, I saw something I now think of as “the shift.” In a lot of heavily white working class districts (think northern Maine/Wisconsin etc.), Trump leads that had been ~5% in Sept had blown open to 15%+ in Oct., etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d venture to guess my friends @nathanlgonzales, @kkondik and I get to see more unique data sets of presidential polling than just about anyone in the country (b/c no competent House-level pollster doesn’t poll the top of the ticket). — PolitiTweet.org