Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big question mark: even if Biden can't hit Clinton '16 numbers w/ Cubans in Miami-Dade, can he hit Clinton-like numbers w/ non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami-Dade and Puerto Rican voters in Orange/Osceola et. al.? That would make a big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One thing I've concluded looking at these maps: Hillary Clinton actually ran a very impressive campaign to register, persuade & turn out FL Hispanics (both Cubans & NCHs) in '16, while Trump's effort/message was horrendous. As a result, Trump has some upside w/ them this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's path to winning FL in '20 probably looks more like Rick Scott's map in '18 than his own map in '16: probably lose Pinellas (St. Pete) & Duval (Jacksonville), but narrow Biden's margins to ~20% in Miami-Dade & Osceola (both heavily Hispanic). https://t.co/yPkP5Kod9Q — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: It begins https://t.co/VVl9Ig9tMC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JenGriffinFNC: Two former sr Trump admin officials confirm .@JeffreyGoldberg reporting that President Trump disparaged veterans and did… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SteveKornacki: The new Quinnipiac polls show not just Biden leads in key states but also voters who overwhelmingly say their minds are… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PoliticsReid You’d think after winning by 694 votes you’d want to move a few blocks to be able to vote for yourself... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticsReid: Neither Rep. Ben McAdams nor his Republican opponent Burgess Owens will be able to vote for themselves this Nov. Neither… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: @Barnes_Law @538politics @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn @ForecasterEnten Lol. https://t.co/pfL6mDSJQX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Barnes_Law @538politics @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn @ForecasterEnten Lol. https://t.co/pfL6mDSJQX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NormOrnstein @QuinnipiacPoll Yes, although I’d still narrowly bet on Biden to ultimately win FL Hispanics. Trump has genuine strength among Cubans he didn’t have in ‘16, and Republicans improved among Puerto Rican voters in Orlando in ‘18. Osceola and Miami-Dade underperformance cost Nelson and Gillum big. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Quinnipiac, despite an overall left lean, has a GOP House effect on their Hispanic crosstab (though not their last FL poll,… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This would be consistent w/ other data we’ve seen (including ‘18 results) suggesting a recovery in GOP support among Cubans et. al. since ‘16. Fortunately for Biden, @QuinnipiacPoll shows him winning FL seniors 54%-44% - another sea change since ‘16 - which offsets it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NormOrnstein @QuinnipiacPoll It seems pretty plausible to me. Consistent with plenty of other data we’ve seen. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump leading FL Hispanic likely voters 45%-43%, per @QuinnipiacPoll. Small sample, etc. but that would be a big change from ‘16, when Clinton pretty clearly won FL Hispanics by double digits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I think we’re headed for 150 million+ turnout for the first time ever. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One emerging narrative I’ve been skeptical of: “WI is still strong for Biden but PA is tightening.” A lot of state polling is noisy and there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t move (or not) together. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden by 2 in NC, according to Monmouth. A solid result for Biden that's pretty consistent with those 7-8 point national lea… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's striking is just how much Omaha (#NE02) stands out from the pack of battlegrounds. It's truly in a league of its own in terms of Biden's metropolitan growth potential over Clinton '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, if you were reorder these by projected '20 vote share of college+ whites... 1. #NE02: 46% 2. Maine: 37% 3. Pennsylvania: 36% 4. Wisconsin: 35% 5. Iowa: 35% 6. Ohio: 33% 7. North Carolina: 33% 8. Michigan: 32% 9. Arizona: 32% 10. Texas: 30% 11. Georgia: 29% 12. #ME02: 28% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But will FB now reject grossly misleading/false election videos less than a week after they’ve already gone viral? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why is Trump doing better w/ non-whites, esp. Hispanics? Two likely reasons: 1) It's a more working-class, less college-educated vote than whites. Trump doing better w/ non-degrees. 2) Hispanic Rs were much less united in '16 (lingering Rubio animosity, etc.) than they are now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bigger erosion for Biden is clearly with Hispanic voters. Trump has gained ground vs. '16, perhaps most dramatically w/ traditionally GOP Hispanic voters such as Cubans. Fascinatingly, for now Biden seems to be offsetting that in FL w/ strong numbers among white seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, there are some crazy numbers floating around this site. But it does seem clear Trump has more Black support today than he had in '16 polls. He's at ~9%, not 5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*boring is not a pejorative term here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

DNC's main goal: get voters really excited about electing a boring president. RNC's main goal: get more base Rs agitated against a boring opponent. Should we be surprised conventions didn't move numbers? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Worth remembering: in 2016, only 39.6% of all voters (and an even lower share in battleground states) had at least a four-year college degree. https://t.co/ZzHT7SugLc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: It's been a big day of polls, and Biden closes it out strong: --Fox has Biden up by 8 and 9 in WI, AZ, up 4 in NC, all amon… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere. Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But, he shouldn't be comfortable with too much more erosion: as we've said over and over, non-college whites are overrepresented in the battleground (49% vs. 44% nationally in '16) and their continued movement to Trump would widen gap between Electoral College/popular vote. — PolitiTweet.org