Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Positive result for Biden here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: this list has everything to do with proximity to the Electoral “tipping point,” not a state’s current tightness in polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Amazingly, Collin Co., TX (Romney +32% in '12) is pretty much a toss up in my book and seemingly on this map too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MonmouthPoll: NATIONAL POLL: Doing a GOOD job handling #COVID19 outbreak @realDonaldTrump: 37% now 40% August 42% May 50% March State… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@fawfulfan This list is about proximity to the EC tipping point, not about the current state polling margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FL is exactly the kind of expensive state where Mike Bloomberg's $$ could make a big difference - but where his failure thus far to follow through on his pledge to boost the Dem nominee is quite significant. https://t.co/TzscbNDBqD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Despite a closer statewide result than some other polls, Biden is up 53%-42% w/ FL Hispanics in this survey - still an underperformance vs. Clinton, but not as severe as in other recent surveys. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's fair to say there's also something of a "core five" battleground that's emerged: AZ, FL, MI, PA and WI. If you wanted to extend it by one in either direction, you'd add MN and NC. If you wanted to extend it by two more on each side, you might add NV/NH and GA/TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not easy to keep track of polling vs. forecast tipping points! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Translation: this is functionally a 4% race entering the homestretch. You'd clearly rather be Biden than Trump, but this thing is far from a done deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The question of whether there will be a pro-Trump gap between the Electoral College & popular vote - at least in a remotely close election - looks settled. Latest @FiveThirtyEight polls average has Biden up 7.6% nationally, but just 4.1% in the tipping point state, Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Worth remembering about WI -- Libertarian Jorgensen is on the ballot, but not Hawkins (Green) or Kanye West — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, there’s not much evidence MI/PA/WI/FL have changed much *in relation to each other* since 2016. And this poll seems pretty consistent w/ what we’ve seen elsewhere in recent days. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking new @MULawPoll of Wisconsin: Biden 47% Trump 43% Jorgensen 4% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It feels like the appropriate time in the election calendar for Woodward week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @maristpoll If turnout rates among CVAP remained roughly the same as '16 but you were to account for demographic change since then, my breakdown for PA would be: 46.1% non-college white 35.4% college white 10.6% Black 4.4% Latino 3.4% Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @maristpoll no...what would you have it at? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It should be noted this @maristpoll - despite not weighting for education - is pretty close to the proper weight for PA. Non-college whites (who are 60%-38% Trump in the poll) are 44% of their LV sample here; my Census-based estimate is ~46%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

From @MarcACaputo's FL dispatch: so far "Trump has outspent Joe Biden’s campaign by about $4 million on TV in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale media market, much of it on Spanish-language ads." https://t.co/kszADy3aep — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JoeNBC: Cuban-Americans breaking big for Trump by ⁦@MarcACaputo⁩ “In a poll of likely Miami-Dade voters for The Miami Herald, Biden l… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This @GQRResearch (D) poll shows Biden trailing 41%-59% among FL's Cuban voters and leading 55%-38% among FL's non-Cuban Hispanics. Both are a big underperformance vs. Clinton '16. If Trump boosts his #s with FL whites, Biden will need same w/ Hispanics. https://t.co/cbZXkJdWrV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SteveKornacki: NBC/Marist Florida poll (8/31-9/6) Likely voters: Biden 48% Trump 48% ----- Two big shifts from '16: 65+: Biden 49-48%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, this was pretty much also the Bill Nelson coalition in '18. The big question in my mind: can Trump ultimately pull Rick Scott-like numbers among Puerto Rican voters in the Orlando area? That's where I have big doubts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty simple: relative to Clinton '16, Biden is polling great w/ white seniors in places like Pinellas, but quite poorly w/ Cuban voters in Miami-Dade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Seeing quite a bit of Dem unskewing about Biden's relative weakness w/ Hispanics (esp. in FL), but the evidence keeps piling up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jmartNYT: Do folks like this not read accounts of donors getting busted for straw giving or just don’t think they’ll get caught ? Read… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @Nate_Cohn and others have pointed out, restoring Milwaukee city turnout to '12 levels would've barely gotten Clinton over the top, but the much bigger culprit here was Clinton's collapse in non-metro WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another more simplified way of looking at this: Milwaukee: +171k Obama, +144k Clinton Milwaukee burbs (MKE + WOW): +126k Romney, +85k Trump Madison/Dane Co.: +132k Obama, +147k Clinton Everything else: +36k Obama, +228k Trump Totals: +213k Obama, +22k Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wisconsin D-R prez vote by geography in 2012, 2016: Milwaukee: 228k-57k, 189k-45k Milwaukee burbs (MKE + WOW): 226k-352k, 220k-305k Madison/Dane Co.: 216k-84k, 218k-71k Everything else: 951k-915k, 755k-983k Totals: 1,621k-1,408k, 1,382k-1,404k — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Task for Dems in WI is far from “easy:” the vast majority of Wisconsin’s 2016 non-voters - 64% - were actually non-college whites. — PolitiTweet.org