Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MetroGram Called it about two hours ago — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another possible encouraging sign for Dems re the enthusiasm gap: the only Dem-leaning county reporting so far (Nicollet) is at 34% of its 2020 turnout. Most GOP-leaning counties are only at ~25% of their 2020 turnout. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In a decent outcome for Dems, Finstad (R) now on track to underperform Trump's 2020 numbers in tonight's #MN01 special: Dodge: Trump +30, Finstad +27 Freeborn: Trump +16, Finstad +17 LeSeuer: Trump +30, Finstad +24 Nicollet: Trump -3, Finstad -6 Steele: Trump +22, Finstad +16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, if Ettinger (D) overperforms in his home county (Mower) or Dem turnout is high in the remaining high-college counties (Blue Earth, Olmsted, Nicollet, Winona), Dems could surpass Biden's numbers. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big deal: WI Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) has apparently eked out a primary win over Trump-endorsed challenger Adam Steen (R), 52%-48%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Brad Finstad (R) defeats Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special election. But it's still too early to know the final margin. Best estimate: high single digits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) defeats Don Samuels in the #MN05 DFL primary. But it's the closest call of her career. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, Brad Finstad (R) looks on track for a high single-digit win over Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special, which is about what we'd expect. Still a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First county looks complete in #MN01 (Rock), and Finstad (R) wins it over Ettinger (D) 67%-32%. In 2020's House race, Hagedorn (R) won it 64%-32% while winning by 3 pts district-wide, so Finstad is hitting the numbers he needs so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) is clinging to a 51%-48% lead over Don Samuels (D) in the #MN05 DFL primary, but Samuels is running out of real estate to make up that gap. Omar may prevail by a record thin margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Whatever the #MN01 special outcome tonight, moderate Brad Finstad (R) will defeat Freedom Caucus-backed Jeremy Munson (R) in the GOP primary for the full term in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) defeats former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) in the #WIGOV GOP primary and will face Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By the count, the #WIGOV GOP primary looks really tight. But judging by what's out, Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) is in a much better position than Rebecca Kleefisch (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Samuels, a Black former Minneapolis councilman who has pushed for stronger police funding, picked up late momentum w/ an endorsement from Mayor Jacob Frey last week & support from more moderate DFL suburban mayors. #MN05 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow: far more of the vote just came in, and #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D) lead vs. Don Samuels (D) is down to 51%-48%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) looking quite strong vs. former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) so far in #WIGOV GOP primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) up just 53%-46% vs. former Minneapolis Councilman Don Samuels (D). Still early, but much closer than her 2020 primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump carried #MN01 54%-44% in 2020. So if Jeff Ettinger (D) were to finish within single digits of Brad Finstad (R) in tonight's special election, it would be a good result for Dems. If Finstad's margin is 5 pts or less, it would be a great result for Dems. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Jim_Brunner: BREAKING @HerreraBeutler has conceded in statement. "I’m proud that I always told the truth, stuck to my principles, and d… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Balint is virtually certain to become the first woman ever elected to Congress from Vermont, the only state left that's never done so. #VTAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Sanders-endorsed state Sen. Becca Balint (D) defeats Lt. Gov. Molly Gray (D) in the #VTAL Dem primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*Gonzalez (#OH16) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Between retirements (Kinzinger, Gonzales, Upton, Katko, Jacobs) and primary defeats (McKinley, Davis, Rice, Meijer, Herrera Beutler), we're watching a slow-motion decimation of House GOP Trump skeptics and election certifiers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Herrera Beutler is the third pro-impeachment GOP incumbent to lose reelection. Kent, endorsed by Trump, is the clear favorite to win this R+5 seat (@CookPolitical PVI) in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) has lost reelection. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and Joe Kent (R) will advance to November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: pro-impeachment #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) advances to the general election, where he's safe. But he's lucky: his pro-Trump GOP challengers split 49% of the vote six ways, while he scraped by w/ 25%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) needs a miracle. Trump-endorsed Joe Kent (R) now the strong favorite to knock her out of the top two. #WA03 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Four are retiring. Two have lost. #WYAL Rep. Liz Cheney (R) is on track to lose in a landslide. #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) is in extreme danger of being locked out of the top two. #CA21 Rep. David Valadao (R) is in a Toss Up race against a Democrat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still a long way to go, but it's quite possible #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) is the lone Republican of the 10 who voted to impeach Trump who is still a member of Congress in January. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in Michigan, Republicans nominated three Black congressional candidates. Democrats? Zero. For the first time in 68 years, Detroit won't have a Black member of Congress. — PolitiTweet.org