Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This number might be comforting to Dems after the barrage of stories the past few weeks. But keep in mind: there's a huge difference between the Latino vote in CA/NY/IL - where Biden is likely winning 75%+ - vs. AZ/TX, and certainly FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @NBCNews/@WSJ/Telemundo poll finds Biden leading 62%-26% nationally w/ Latinos, a strong lead relative to several other polls but down from Clinton's 63%-16% lead in the same survey four years ago. https://t.co/1yBMcI74CF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By contrast, per @Nate_Cohn, Clinton was -5 among seniors and -29 among non-college whites in final 2016 polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, the average of these four polls' crosstabs has Biden +7.5 among seniors (vs. +9 in August) and -22 among non-college whites (vs. -21 in August). Keep in mind, both these groups are overrepresented in the core battlegrounds (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) vs. the nation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The best news for Biden in the four live-interview polls taken so far in Sept. (Fox, Marist, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth) may be that his numbers are holding steady among 1) seniors and 2) non-college whites - the two groups where Trump badly needs to get closer to his '16 numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, but per Census, non-Hispanic whites were 72% of registered voters in '18...they'll be at least 70% of RVs in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd be curious if @LeeMiringoff has an explanation for @MaristPoll's approach (and apologies if I've missed it somewhere). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nationally, Marist seems to consistently be weighting race to about 63-64% white, when the Census reported the electorate was 73% white in both '16 and '18. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bizarre thing about the @maristpoll that came out on Friday showing Biden up 52%-42% among RVs didn't seem to be the white college/non ratio, it was the sample being 36% non-white (way high). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yup. https://t.co/jgAFCRZIGI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: PS the Senate skew toward Republicans (6-7 points) is both bigger and more permanent than the Electoral College one (2-3… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mmurraypolitics: The major findings of our new national NBC News/WSJ poll: 1. Biden maintains his national lead over Trump. Biden 51%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @NBCNews/@WSJ poll (9/13-16): Biden 51% Trump 43% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn always keeping me honest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NateSilver538 Just wait until Republicans retaliate by granting statehood to North Wyoming, South Wyoming, Northeast Dakota, Northwest Dakota, Southeast Dakota and Southwest Dakota. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman Miles- I know you’re upset by last week’s @kkondik Crystal Ball story outlining a nightmare 269-269 tie that the House would likely decide in Trump’s favor. But imho it was a really solid, well-researched article. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman That would be a true doomsday scenario! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*87.8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Taking a moment to reflect. It will never stop being insane that the political/jurisprudential fate of the nation might have hinged on whether or not an 87.5 year old could make it to 88.8. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NilesGApol @JMilesColeman @leahaskarinam We’re on the same page: Biden is clearly ahead in Wisconsin! And I think he’s like a 75% favorite to win it all. I also know systemic polling errors happen. And see it as *responsible* to point out unlikely outcomes too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman @leahaskarinam Was this an unsupported doomsday scenario? https://t.co/GIjxcNVFhi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Man, that razor-thin 2018 FL Senate outcome is looming pretty large right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CNY315_ 2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: “Greenfield leads with independent voters like Denison 47% to 32% over Ernst. Additionally, 10% of those who say they v… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Or at least, underperforming w/ Trump voters (enough to negate crossover from traditional Rs who are voting for Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beginning to think there is something of a pattern: incumbent GOP women underperforming Trump on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Technocracy12 Population has nothing to do w/ this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@aprihar @gelliottmorris Let's check back after all states certify and see who's right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's an *actual* prediction: no matter the outcome, Biden ultimately wins a higher share of the vote in #NE02 and AZ than he wins in WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A major news anchor DMed to ask: "Are these actual predictions or joke predictions?" The answer: neither. The point is, the odds of a major post-election legitimacy crisis are probably not far off from the odds a year ago of a global pandemic striking in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org