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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By far most interesting result last night: Mary Peltola (D) has a legitimate shot to win the #AKAL special election over Sarah Palin (R) if enough of Nick Begich’s (R) ballots “exhaust” or go to Peltola in the final ranked-choice round (we won’t know for a few weeks). https://t.co/QkUqle3uxN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As badly as Cheney is getting clobbered now, her deficit is on track to approach 40 pts and she's poised to lose every county except Teton (Jackson Hole). #WYAL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Best guess: Harriet Hageman's (R) margin of victory over Rep. Liz Cheney (R) will exceed 30 pts and probably 35 pts. #WYAL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The idea that Cheney could be a serious factor in a 2024 GOP primary or would siphon votes from Trump as an independent remains as preposterous as the idea this #WYAL primary would be competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Cheney is the fourth pro-impeachment House Republican to lose renomination (four of the other six opted to retire). The Trump-endorsed Hageman is poised to become the fourth straight GOP woman to represent #WYAL. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Harriet Hageman (R) defeats Rep. Liz Cheney (R) in the #WYAL GOP primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Wyoming election result I find hardest to believe today: in 2006, a Democrat came within less than a point of winning the state's at large House seat. #WYAL https://t.co/K8wu1X2wQY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: It's kind of amusing to see everyone camped out in Jackson Hole for the Wyoming primary tonight. It's as they say: as goes J… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 16, 2022 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The share of media time/ink spent in Jackson relative to its share of Wyoming's GOP primary vote (~3.5%) tells you a lot about where we are right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Our ⁦@CookPolitical⁩ intern Peter Jones looks at political experience of members of Congress since 1981 and finds some pret… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2022 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looking to set a new personal record for on-topic callers this morning. Who’s got an interesting district/race they’d like to talk about? — PolitiTweet.org

Washington Journal @cspanwj

FRI| David Wasserman (@Redistrict) Cook Political Report's U.S. House Senior Editor, will discuss Campaign 2022. W… https://t.co/7qZYcXibIA

Posted Aug. 12, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The most anticlimactic House race in the country? #WYAL, where Rep. Liz Cheney (R)'s aim shifted from winning reelection to martyrdom a long time ago. https://t.co/sHsEC6TCYa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: Alaska's wild House special election headed for ranked-choice photo finish. Full analysis of #AKAL: https://t.co/a9o1Wnt2PD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We’re keeping #MN01 in Likely R for the fall at @CookPolitical following Brad Finstad’s (R) narrower-than-expected victory over Jeff Ettinger (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

True of #AKAL on 8/16 and #NY19/#NY23 on 8/23... — PolitiTweet.org

ashleydittus @AshleyDittus

The August 23rd combination Special/Primary Election: https://t.co/SQEqOR5Pud

Posted Aug. 11, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @sfrostenson: What if Democrats had passed their best maps? Republicans? Nonpartisan reformers? We explore what the 2021-22 congressiona… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2022 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've also moved #MI10, where John James (R) starts out w/ a mammoth cash advantage over Carl Marlinga (D), from Lean R to Likely R. The irony: had Rep. Andy Levin (D) chosen to run here (where most of his constituents live) rather than in #MI11, he might have had a chance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: another two-column rating jump. #WA03 moves from Solid R to Lean R following Trump-endorsed Joe Kent's (R) defeat of pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R). Full analysis: https://t.co/olFrBSRDMe — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two things can be true: 1) Dems have made big gains in recent years among the college+, high social trust voters who tend to make up a larger share of low-turnout special electorates 2) I don’t think we would’ve seen these strong Dem performances in #NE01/#MN01 pre-Dobbs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Trump’s Grip on GOP Remains Strong, but “Red Wave” Looking Smaller w/ ⁦@Redistrict⁩ and ⁦@JessicaTaylor⁩ https://t.co/rfPu… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This much is clear from Kansas and the #NE01/#MN01 House specials: there's still time for things to snap back before November, but we're no longer living in a political environment as pro-GOP as November 2021. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finstad's lead down to 50%-48% in #MN01 overall, though the last two counties should push it back up to 51%-47%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Olmsted Co. (Rochester) just dropped, and it's another big Dem overperformance: Biden +11, Ettinger +17. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My best guess: Brad Finstad (R) ends up winning #MN01 (Trump +10) by just 51%-47% or so when the final four counties finish reporting. That would be remarkably consistent with the June 28 #NE01 special, when Mike Flood (R) won a Trump +11 seat by just 53%-47%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are four counties left to report in #MN01: Brown, Houston, Martin and Olmsted. Overall, they were tied between Biden/Trump in 2020, vs. Trump +10 in #MN01 as a whole. So we can expect to see Finstad's (R) current 9.6 pt lead narrow significantly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Blue Earth Co. (Mankato) just dropped, and it's another big Dem overperformance. Biden +4, Ettinger +12. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Brad Pfaff (D) wins the #WI03 Dem primary and will face Derrick Van Orden (R) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, the #MN01 special is still a safe call for Brad Finstad (R), but his final margin over Jeff Ettinger (D) won't be anything to write home about - and fits a pattern of a "red wave" ebb post-Dobbs. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The GOP margin in the #MN01 special election (9.8 pts) is already below Trump's margin from 2020 (10.1 pts) and the district's two biggest Dem enclaves - Rochester and Mankato - haven't even reported any votes yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two new counties just dropped results in #MN01 w/ huge Dem overperformances: Mower: Biden -6, Ettinger +14 Winona: Biden +0.4, Ettinger +9 Mower is Ettinger's home county, but this is going to end up being a strong Dem showing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2022