Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JoshSchwerin Care to explain why? Biden's leading comfortably in virtually all the #NE02 polls we're seeing, public and private. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I think you erroneously misplaced #NE02 in this graphic, might want to correct. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bottom line: the single best bang for either candidate's buck in TX right now isn't expensive Houston/DFW markets - it's probably Spanish language ads in South Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

File away for future book, the "The 2020 Gray Revolt." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words: if Biden were gaining anywhere near as much ground among TX Hispanics as he is among TX's suburban whites - or even winning Obama '12 type margins among them - he might be on track to win, narrowly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden lead among TX Hispanics in recent polls: UT/Texas Tribune (10/4): 54%-37% UMass-Lowell (9/25): 49%-45% NYT/Siena (9/22): 57%-32% Quinnipiac (9/21): 51%-43% CBS/YouGov (9/18): 61%-30% Wide variation, but on balance probably wouldn't be large enough for Biden to win TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @evanasmith: Context for UT/@texastribune poll that shows @realDonaldTrump +5 over @joebiden in Texas 25 days out 2016: @realDonaldTrum… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, per @pewresearch, 7% of their 10,543 RV online panel either didn't answer or weren't yet sure of their voting mode. In some states, mail/early ballot tallies are expected to be reported at poll closure (i.e. FL, NC); in other battlegrounds, EDay votes likely reported first. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is precisely why most of the data you'll see thrown around about Dems' massive mail request/return rate advantage is utterly meaningless. We just don't have a prior for 2020's voting mode polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI: if you're working the polls on EDay and it feels like a lot more Trump supporters are showing up, that's because...they will be. Mail (39%): 69%-27% Biden Election Day (33%): 63%-31% Trump Early in-person (21%): 55%-40% Biden Per @PewResarch: https://t.co/5wwtpa62uK https://t.co/aSz5UI6mKb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NY11 update: not to be outdone by Rep. Max Rose (D), GOP super PAC drops its own f*** bomb on Staten Island. https://t.co/cceKkZTJhL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Key @pewresearch chart: Biden leads Trump 52%-42% overall, but unprecedented partisan polarization between absentee/mail voters (39% of all), early in-person voters (21%) and Election Day voters (33%). Per survey, 7% still unsure which method they’ll use. https://t.co/yvjOYjQFSG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another big finding: Biden leads Trump 49%-26% among 2016 Johnson/Stein voters, per @pewresearch, as well as 54%-38% among those who didn’t cast ballots in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sorry, should have noted Biden also leading 55%-40% among early in person, per @pewresearch. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also interesting: @pewresearch finds that of the 5% of RVs who support Jorgensen/Hawkins, they would lean Trump over Biden 54%-42% if forced to choose - suggesting their presence might actually aid Biden? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @pewresearch poll: Biden leads 69%-27% among those who plan to vote by mail, Trump leads 63%-31% among those who plan to vote on Election Day. https://t.co/5wwtpa62uK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tempting to read a lot into these stats, but keep in mind: 1) It's possible ~22% of *all* 2020 voters won't have voted in 2016 2) These figures don't always include voters who have moved across state lines — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BresPolitico: McConnell avoids visiting White House over its handling of coronavirus. ⁦@marianne_levine⁩ https://t.co/vsKhYFQoNa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are definitely more effective & artful ways I've heard Dems dodge the question, such as: "You want to talk about court-packing? Let's talk about Trump/McConnell packing the court with judges who want to overturn Roe/pre-existing conditions," etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, this answer is not the best look for Biden/Harris, and it's easy to see it being used in R ads up & down ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At his current numbers w/ 65+ voters, I'm not even certain reverse mortgage companies would hire him as a pitchman. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical House ratings: Democrats poised to expand their majority. Solid/Likely/Lean D: 226 Solid/Likely/Lean R: 184 Toss Ups: 25 https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga https://t.co/FystSvS7FK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hours-long lines in Fairfax were avoidable to begin with. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: These two working class Pennsylvania districts should be prime pickup opportunities for Rs — but GOP operatives have seen… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MattZeitlin @CookPolitical https://t.co/tXnqnmKEhd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: NEW: House rating changes in #IA03 #NY24 #NC11 #PA07 #PA16 #TX07 #VA07 Read @Redistrict's deep dive into all 58 competi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of note: we're updating our @CookPolitical House outlook to a Democratic net gain of 5-10 seats, with anything from 0-15 seats possible. And, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows's former #NC11 moves from Likely R to Lean R as both parties now regard it as competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: seven House rating changes, all in Democrats' direction. Read all about it in our new 7,000 word overview of the most competitive races ($). https://t.co/9HvHFZ6iU6 https://t.co/0J5ni4DuAp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Former Dem congressman endorsing the R who beat him...and this may well be how #NE02 ends up voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In more exciting news, we've got seven more House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical tomorrow. — PolitiTweet.org