Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jheil: New pod alert! With Election Day 8 weeks out, we have a double dose of @CookPolitical 🧠power on #HHW, as @amyewalter & @Redistri… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Those surprisingly strong polls for Dems you see in the same states where 2020 polls overestimated them? Probably another mirage (via @Nate_Cohn). https://t.co/dYs2FGcqlp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now that primary season is almost over, I’ve crunched the results for @CookPolitical. While the House GOP has veered towards Trump, Dems have tacked only marginally left. https://t.co/tu3W8XWQUI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In New York tonight. Anyone know any political data gurus who throw good parties? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Debate the merits of RCV all you want, but this much is clear: Sarah Palin has no one to blame but herself for losing a Trump +10 seat. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW @CookPolitical House ratings: if the 32 Toss Ups were to split evenly, Republicans would net 16 seats - roughly in the middle of our 10-20 seat range. https://t.co/mAdCOttOtp https://t.co/uNwvcyqYJs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: five House rating changes, all in Democrats' direction. Full analysis: https://t.co/bgzEWPHbhf https://t.co/ogfAkCNd3f — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@drewheineman Twitter's inability to get the joke never ceases to amaze. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind, the unexpired #AKAL term is only four months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The amount of land mass represented by House Democrats just went up by 104%. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: FYI, @Redistrict wrote about this very possibility of a Peltola beating Palin back in mid-August…https://t.co/CaIr1bhnUZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: in the wake of Mary Peltola's (D) defeat of Sarah Palin (R), @CookPolitical will be moving #AKAL's November rating from Likely R to Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I'm reading the blurry screen correctly, Peltola (D) was aided by a huge "exhaustion" rate among Begich voters. Begich's ballots broke down: Palin (R) 50.3% Peltola (D) 28.8% No second choice (exhaust): 20.9% In the end, Palin was so disliked #AKAL wasn't even that close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final margin: Peltola (D) defeats Palin (R) 51.5%-48.5% in the final round of ranked-choice. This is a huge victory and pickup for Dems, driven more by Palin's unpopularity than national trends. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Mary Peltola (D) defeats Sarah Palin (R) in the #AKAL special election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And in true Alaska style...the livestream has frozen. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And in a metaphor for the race, the #AKAL ranked-choice livestream begins w/ a sideways camera. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Any path to a Peltola upset likely depends on a high "exhaustion" rate of Nick Begich (R) ballots that didn't rank a second choice. Because this is the first time Alaska voters using ranked-choice, I don't think we have a great idea what the exhaustion rate will be. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tune into @ak_elections livestream at 8pm ET to find out whether Sarah Palin (R) wins a seat in Congress or Mary Peltola (D) pulls off a ranked-choice upset. #AKAL https://t.co/y8UoK9s1MY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: 📣 Spread the word: political enthusiasts can now subscribe to the Cook Political Report with our new $99 election season… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the best "hard data" gauge of the current enviro is WA's 8/2 blanket primary, which featured higher turnout. As @SeanTrende et. al. have pointed out, Dems performed much better than 2010/2014, and almost as well as 2020 (but not quite). Graphic credit: @alflinn. https://t.co/IYmxl56jfb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, post-Dobbs special elections have seen huge swings towards Dems thanks to highly-engaged college grads dominating low-turnout races. But it's dangerous to extrapolate these results to November. https://t.co/48kRnpVjVo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: a deep dive on why we've downgraded our outlook for GOP gains from 20-35 seats to 10-20 seats. https://t.co/YzK7FOpFmt https://t.co/kJiN5kjjFB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Alaska count: Mary Peltola (D) expands lead over Sarah Palin (R) to 16,347 votes. Depending on how many ballots “exhaust,” Palin probably needs 68-70% of Begich second place votes to prevail. It’s going to be close. #AKAL https://t.co/5NDTB6lo2U — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: An “in party” trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the party out of power has rarely suc… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We won’t change the rating of the race because voting ended more than a week ago, but if I were forced to describe the outlook now, I’d have a hard time seeing it as anything other than a Toss Up. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans are staring at a potential nightmare scenario here, and Begich has Al Gross to thank for costing him the race. Had Gross stayed in and split Dem votes w/ Peltola, Palin/Begich would have finished first/second and Dem ballots would have put Begich over the top. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, Palin now has to squeeze a 14.5k vote margin out of Begich’s 50k votes to win the final ranked-choice round. That may not happen if enough of Begich’s voters a) didn’t rank a second choice or b) dislike Palin so much they ranked Peltola second. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CoryMcCartan: Clear & engaging write-up of recent progress in redistricting analysis. So glad to have been able to do research in this… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The November race between Josh Riley (D) and Marc Molinaro (R) in the new #NY19 remains in our Toss Up column. https://t.co/fJqu7goxRk — PolitiTweet.org