Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gypsiqueen012 @people @SteveKornacki omg every time I'm back home I make a beeline for Tastee Subs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The site was run by a mysterious genius who went by the pseudonym "Wally Edge," and it drove me crazy not knowing who this human encyclopedia of NJ politics was. Years later, @wildstein revealed himself, and he's been the #1 source of info on #NJ07 these past few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Random fact: when I was a teenager growing up in central NJ, I got my start in journalism by submitting election analysis and maps to a little-known website called https://t.co/TK8TQrfHZf. The lead reporter for the site? One of @People's 2020 Sexiest Men Alive, @SteveKornacki. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

House Dems are off by a little here: Biden is on track to win about 7 million more votes than Trump, not 6 million. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Georgia hand count audit is complete and @GaSecofState is set to certify the 2020 result as: Biden 2,475,141 (49.5%) Trump 2,462,857 (49.3%) Biden wins Georgia's (16 EVs) by 12,284 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Louisiana has certified its 2020 election results: Trump 1,255,776 (58.5%) Biden 856,034 (39.9%) That's a 1.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 5.9% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: after conferring w/ all #NY22 sources, here's my latest count... Tenney (R) 155,412 Brindisi (D) 155,306 That's a margin of *106 votes,* and it's unclear what remains outstanding. Some ballots under challenge are included in this count, and totals are subject to change. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, the big hope for Dems/Brindisi is that there are still hundreds more ballots to count in Herkimer/Oneida/Broome, as @JRosenblattTV's reporting suggests. Earlier this week, my #NY22 sources had said these counties were basically done counting. https://t.co/MwyWMaMunM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you really want to get into the weeds, it looks like Brindisi got what he needed out of the rural southern end of Chenango Co. closer to Binghamton, but didn't quite hit the numbers he needed in Norwich city or Sherburne. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For those wondering why there were about 400 fewer ballots counted than the earlier 5,164 estimate of Chenango ballots... 1) a few hundred votes went to the Libertarian 2) a few left #NY22 race blank 3) a few affidavit ballots were rejected — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) needed to win the Chenango absentees by ~38% to overtake Tenney's lead and he won them by 36.2%. Looks like #NY22 could turn into another heartbreaker for House Dems, but given NY's stone age vote tabulation, who knows. Lawyers descending now... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals... Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%) Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%) Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Correction: I transcribed that wrong from my spreadsheet. My current modeling spits out 3,570 to 1,471, which would give Brindisi a net 2,099 votes and put him in the *lead* by 154 votes in #NY22 overall. But we'll see in a few hours... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on my current modeling of the Chenango Co. absentees (going off of precincts w/ similar party reg/abs returns), Brindisi would win them 3,568 to 1,607, which would give him a net 1,961 votes over Tenney. Tenney's current lead is 1,945, per my count. Wow. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Joe Biden will still be the president, despite attempts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's not so hard to imagi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No joke: the size of Dems/Pelosi's House majority now depends on absentee ballots from tiny Norwich, NY (pop. 7,190) being counted right now. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The difference between 1,920 and 2,097 may seem trivial, but it's huge. If it's 1,920, Brindisi (D) only needs to win the 5,165 remaining Chenango ballots by 37%. But if it's 2,097, he needs a 41% margin. Based on neighboring counties, I think 37% is doable, 41% less so. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In true 2020 form, confusion reigns. NY's lack of uniform, real-time reporting system have led to differing accounts of the size of Claudia Tenney (R)'s current #NY22 lead. Here are three different estimates based on reporting from @JRosenblattTV, @jillianforstadt and me. https://t.co/kjbqmpg1N0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's a huge day in #NY22, as 5,164 Chenango ballots being counted *right now* hold the key to whether Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) hangs on and delivers Dems a crucial House seat. It's likely to come down to less than 300 votes either way, and I'm on the edge of my seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: Trump has no viable path to victory. Every single other candidate in modern history in his position has long since con… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ErikJMaassen @HacksOnTap That was me — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Mama_Sayyyyyyy @CookPolitical Biden won the county w/ all absentees counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. If you voted absentee in Rensselaer Co., NY, congrats: your ballot helped push the @CookPolitical national popular vote tracker past the 156 million threshold. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden has now doubled Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote margin of 2.86 million, and I'd estimate we've still got 2-3 million ballots left outstanding (mostly in NY & CA). https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa? https://t.co/VwzHEMZPgK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: the U.S. just surpassed a record-shattering *156 million* votes counted... Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%) Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%) Biden's popular vote lead is up to 5.9 million (3.8%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: More generally, this just isn't 2008's GA electorate. Democrats have a lot more strength at the top of the turnout spectrum,… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: CA just surpassed TX for the distinction of Trump's highest 2020 vote total, with 5.88 million (in 2016, it was third behind TX & FL). https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's some confusion among #NY22 sources about the size of Tenney (R)'s lead. My earlier count had it at 1,968, while @jillianforstadt says 1,847. That could make a meaningful difference: does Brindisi (D) need to win remaining Chenango by 38% or 36%? https://t.co/0UYAM381gn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One hope for Dems & Brindisi w/ the 5,164 ballots left to count: Chenango Co. is closer to Binghamton, where he's overperforming his '18 numbers, than it is to Utica/Rome, where he's underperforming. It's anyone's guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) *gained* ground in today's Somerset/Morris county updates, and his lead is back above 5,000 votes. Tom Kean (R) lacks a realistic path back, and House Dems breathe a huge sigh of relief. — PolitiTweet.org