Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If there's a state/local election admin regime in need of a major overhaul, it's probably NY - as today's #NY22 hearing is making clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For reference, here are the current maps that dilute Black voting strength by packing Black voters into #AL07 and #LA02 (and the rest of the states' districts are heavily white & safely Republican). https://t.co/Y4nc9FKbUp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A huge question for 2022 is whether Dems can successfully sue to unpack heavily Black "vote sink" districts in the Deep South. For example, the maps below create second opportunity districts in each of AL & LA - both states where Black voters are packed into one seat now. https://t.co/LL73XqUpib — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@adamdferguson How so? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Cornelius_007 I also drew this map — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, here's one of Dems' biggest potential redistricting weapons: Illinois. Dems could convert the current 13D-5R map into a 14D-3R map in which 14/17 districts voted for both Clinton & Biden (currently just 11/18 did). https://t.co/bpB8kncheD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And even worse for Dems, the 13R-2D map above *complies* w/ OH's new anti-gerrymandering criteria, including keeping the cities of Cleveland & Cincinnati whole and minimizing split counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@noahyantis Here you go... https://t.co/DoD8xmWBaz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, there's a new commission in OH, but Republicans could easily go around it if it deadlocks...and this map would put both #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and #OH13 Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in brutal districts that voted for Trump by 10%+. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you thought Ohio Republicans' 12R-4D map this past decade was an aggressive gerrymander, just wait until you see this 13R-2D (!) map, which could wipe out half of Dems' House majority in just one state. https://t.co/FpffOj6ML3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, this map would split 40% fewer localities than the current VA map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm guessing whatever the new commission does, it's not going to end up as gerrymandered as the current VA map... https://t.co/6ojcOv6yIC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I have no idea what VA's new bipartisan redistricting commission will do, but one possibility is that #VA07 could pick up Charlottesville & Albemarle Co., giving Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) a safe district and locking in a 7-4 Dem edge in the delegation. https://t.co/bhLZkCUvOf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jbarro About 6 points in '16 and I'd guess 10 points in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FL Republicans could try to get even more aggressive, but would risk courts striking their map down under FL's Fair Districts amendment. This map simply protects every sitting Dem & GOP incumbent and gives Rs both of FL's new seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd expect Rs to attempt to purge Miami Beach and Brickell from #FL27 to try to shore up Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R). It's a safe bet there will also be new, safely R districts (#FL28 and #FL29) in high-growth areas of south & north central FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FL is a big problem for Dems in many respects, including redistricting next year. It wouldn't be that hard for Rs to convert the current 15-12 Trump district map into an 18-11 Trump district map, as I've drawn below. https://t.co/E2YTBfx2hM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And sorry, Fitzpatrick is #PA01 (the pre-2018 lines are still somewhat ingrained in my mind) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the talk of ticket-splitting (and sure, it benefitted Rs a lot more than we expected), I think we're on pace for the smallest number of "crossover" districts in modern history. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A running list of "split-ticket" House districts (still in progress)... Biden/GOP #CA21 Valadao #CA39 Kim #CA48 Steel #FL27 Salazar #NE02 Bacon #NY24 Katko #PA08 Fitzpatrick #TX24 Van Duyne Trump/Dem #IA03 Axne #ME02 Golden #MI08 Slotkin #NJ03 Kim #PA08 Cartwright #WI03 Kind — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn FWIW, St. Lawrence Co., NY just reported their absentees yesterday and it's a modest pro-Trump shift since '16, which still stands out in Upstate NY but will still end up more pink than red. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: the Biden/Harris '20 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8627 points) just surpassed the Obama/Biden '12 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8597 points). It's now the second largest popular victory since 1996. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Washington, DC just reported 11k newly counted votes: Biden 10,058 (94.2%) Trump 414 (3.9%) That brings Biden's margin in DC to 86.8 points, the exact same margin Clinton beat Trump there in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The U.S. just surpassed a record-shattering 156.5 million votes counted: Biden 79,837,186 (51.0%) Trump 73,801,178 (47.2%) And I'd estimate we've got 1.5-2.5 million ballots left to count (mostly in NY). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For some reason, cracking Albuquerque is getting a lot more likes on here than cracking Nashville. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, are Tennessee Republicans going to resist the temptation to draw eight congressional districts that all voted for Trump by 15%+ in time for 2022? https://t.co/VkAU80311o — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, are New Mexico Dems going to resist the temptation to draw three congressional districts that all voted for Biden by 10%+ in time for 2022? https://t.co/HkkohtQ1ua — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@tbonier My mistake. So Biden got 102.7% of Clinton's votes in Detroit, not 99.7% - which isn't bad given Detroit's population decline! But the precinct-level data in a variety of cities does suggest Trump made tiny improvements in heavily Black precincts, and I'd say that's noteworthy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two facts: 1. Despite turnout skyrocketing just about everywhere else, turnout was relatively flat in heavily Black central city precincts 2. In Detroit, which is 79% Black, Biden won 99.6% of Clinton's '16 votes but Trump won 165% of his '16 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NateSilver538 But then again, why would you trust anyone on a site called "Election Bettin' Godds" in the first place? — PolitiTweet.org