Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lanier Co. (rural south GA) looks done: Perdue 2,122-902 (+40.4) Loeffler 2,121-907 (+40.0) Trump (Nov.) 2,509-1,019 (+41.7) And that's only 86% of November turnout, so if that's fully counted, that's great news for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not currently accepting new followers (j/k). https://t.co/1soQkG0EAo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, NYT is reporting 98% of estimated vote counted in Madison Co. (76% Trump) w/ only about 6k votes counted, but there were 15k votes counted there in November so I think there's a lot more to come there. Not sure if that's affecting the needle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far - and not a huge surprise - Perdue is running slightly ahead of Loeffler in Atlanta & burbs (Fulton, Gwinnett). It's not likely to be more than a point overall, but in a race this close, it could ultimately be meaningful. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, our first maybe-complete county (Webster, rural narrow Trump) is at 90.3% of November turnout. That sounds impressive, but could easily be surpassed elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We have what might be our first near-complete county, and it's Webster in rural SW GA: Perdue 700-553 Loeffler 704-551 November: Trump 748-639 If Webster's near done, it's not great for the Dems...still early... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First precinct is from Burke Co. (rural outside of Augusta): Warnock 534-189 Ossoff 536-187 Doesn't tell us much b/c it's tiny share of county's vote, but tells us...don't expect much divergence between these two races. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And the final polls of the 2020 election cycle have closed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For GOPers, the early "oh sh**" equivalent would be turnout levels less than 85% of November in red/rural counties, akin to the Alabama '17 special situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For Dems, my guess is it would be a big Nov-Jan surge for Perdue/Loeffler in Cobb/Gwinnett/Henry, where the longest-term residents (most reliable voters) skew whiter/more GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That would put DeKalb Co. (83% Biden) at 90.01% of November levels with an hour until the polls close. Republicans have to hope turnout is comparably high in their best areas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, anyone got a >6pm DeKalb scrape? @Nate_Cohn @KevinQ https://t.co/N40pA2IH7J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my math, that would put easily put turnout in DeKalb at >90% of November levels by poll closing. Might be a good yardstick to measure heavily R counties against once we start getting some completed counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Takeaways: for Ossoff to win, he has to get much closer to Biden's numbers in the outer ATL suburbs, where he ran behind Biden. For Warnock to win, he's got to count on some Collins voters in North GA not voting for Loeffler this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The top 10 GA counties w/ 10k+ voters where Dems underperformed Biden by the most in November's Loeffler special: 1. Hart -2.1% 2. Oconee -2.1% 3. Stephens -1.9% 4. Forsyth -1.7% 5. Greene -1.7% 6. Glynn -1.6% 7. Thomas -1.6% 8. Columbia -1.6% 9. Fulton -1.5% 10. Catoosa -1.5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The top 10 GA counties w/ 10k+ voters where Ossoff underperformed Biden's % by the most in November: 1. Oconee -2.6% 2. Greene -2.5% 3. Fulton -2.3% 4. Cobb -1.9% 5. Clarke -1.8% 6. Forsyth -1.7% 7. Thomas -1.7% 8. Tift -1.6% 9. Fayette -1.5% 10. Cherokee 1.4% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, this is why the data on heavy EDay turnout in DeKalb doesn't really indicate anything either way. Sure, heavy EDay turnout in a blue county, but especially high in R-friendly precincts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lol, clearly sounds like a Trump voter who had a change of heart in the last two months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Apologies if shipping backups delayed your mug’s arrival until after Xmas. But hey, they made it in time for the GA runoffs (and you might need one tonight). https://t.co/1HtpfFKE5D — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems could make the case that the configuration above is less gerrymandered than the current GOP-drawn map, which packs New Orleans and Baton Rouge together in one 62% Black district (#LA02), while all five other districts have solid White majorities. https://t.co/fTM08ipNDL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Louisiana is poised to enter February w/ two House vacancies, but the big question for 2022 is whether Dems are successful in suing to create a second Black majority district (in the hypothetical below, #LA02 and #LA05 are both 52%+ Black). https://t.co/4yWGrieqLw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @rollcall: NEW: Iowa Sen. Charles E. Grassley, the Senate president pro tempore, says he and not Vice President Mike Pence will preside… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The counties that really let Barrow (D) down in the '18 runoff? The outer ATL suburban ring: Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry, Rockdale etc. - a more transient/less deeply-rooted Dem vote. That's where tomorrow's races will be won or lost. Ossoff/Warnock can't afford a letdown there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Obviously the 2018 GA SOS runoff isn't a great comparison b/c it was such low turnout, but Barrow (D) improved his share of 2PV vs. November in Fulton, DeKalb, Clarke, Chatham, Muscogee. Meanwhile, Raffensperger (R) improved his % of the 2PV in 123 of the 154 other counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One phenomenon to be wary of tomorrow night as results start to come in: often, runoffs place such a premium on base turnout that red counties get redder than the initial round and blue counties get bluer. It could take a while to determine what's transpiring. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Translation: we're not going to have reapportionment numbers for at least another month. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*There are no upsides for democracy in the absurdity of all of this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One upside* for Biden in certification votes: by driving a wedge in the congressional GOP, they'll highlight off the bat which Rs he *might* be able to work with, and which ones he can pretty much write off for the next four years. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And here's the share of U.S. voters who cast ballots in "landslide counties" that gave one party's presidential nominee at least *75%* of all major party votes... 1992: 4% 1996: 5% 2000: 6% 2004: 7% 2008: 11% 2012: 12% 2016: 21% 2020: 15% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And here's the share of U.S. voters who cast ballots in "landslide counties" that gave one party's presidential nominee at least *70%* of all major party votes... 1992: 7% 1996: 11% 2000: 13% 2004: 16% 2008: 20% 2012: 23% 2016: 30% 2020: 29% — PolitiTweet.org