Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's even a pocket of pro-Dem votes left in Newton Co. (suburban ATL) that might not be factored into others' models b/c some sites are prematurely counting it as fully reported. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So right now, Perdue is leading by ~115k votes. But, he's got only a few small pockets of votes out: Bartow, Columbia, Dodge, Forsyth, etc. Meanwhile, Ossoff has a lot of great turf left: DeKalb, Cobb, Chatham, Henry...a little Fulton/Gwinnett...but mostly DeKalb. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fair enough! The label is accurate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although a lot of TV chatter right now is focused on the big prizes (DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, etc.), a lot of it is overlooking what tipped the Warnock/Loeffler race in favor of a call, in my view: Rockdale Co. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Stay tuned for more on the other #GASEN race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

About an hour ago, Republicans badly needed a Dem letdown in the outer suburban ATL ring. But, there's no sign of that happening; as more votes have come in the pattern of GOP underperformance has looked even more consistent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats are the favorites in the Ossoff/Perdue race as well, which means they're currently favored for Senate control. Still a ways to go there. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA's special Senate runoff. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Loeffler may have just retaken the lead in the count, but she's behind in the race considering what's left. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's the story right now: 1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal. 2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn't anything special. 3. It's getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Baldwin Co. (Milledgeville, GA) is at 91.7% of its November turnout: Warnock +4.0 Ossoff +3.6 Biden (Nov.) +1.3 Another great performance for Dems in a mid-sized, racially polarized county. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rockdale Co. (SE Atlanta suburbs) is at 90.7% of November turnout: Warnock +45.2 Ossoff +44.8 Biden (Nov.) +40.0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tiny, rural Randolph Co., GA (59% Black) is at *97%* of its November turnout. It's going for Warnock by 13.2 pts and Ossoff by 12.8 after going for Biden by 9.2 pts in November. This is a clear pattern now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, Macon Co. is 61% Black. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting: Ossoff: +25.0 Warnock: +25.6 Biden (Nov.): +21.3 And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rabun Co. (NE corner of GA) looks fully reported: Perdue 6,618-1,787 Loeffler 6,566-1,833 Trump (Nov.) 7,474-1,984 Familiar story: turnout at only 88.9% of Nov. levels, and Rs running a bit behind vote %s they need. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It turns out when your coalition depends so much on one person (Donald Trump) driving turnout, there are some big downside risks when that person isn't on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Oconee Co. (outside Athens) looks fully reported: Perdue +37.0 Loeffler +35.6 Trump (Nov.) +33.5 Perdue (Nov.) +38.3 Plenty of Biden/Perdue voters here in Nov., and Perdue couldn't match his Nov. margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What we saw in 2018: plenty of Trump voters just won't turn out without Trump on the ballot. Are we seeing history repeat itself tonight? So far, yes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Turns out it's a lot faster to count/report votes when you can count the number of races on the ballot on one hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest unknown and possible source of GOP comeback: what does final Dem turnout look like in the more transient, outer suburban ATL ring (Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry, etc.)? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line so far: I think Republicans have a turnout problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Washington Co. (rural central GA, racially polarized) looks fully reported: Warnock +3.0 Ossoff +2.4 Biden (November) +0.7 And turnout is at 90.6% of November levels. These are great numbers for both Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are now 19 really red, rural GA counties that look fully reported, and turnout is only at 82-90% of November levels in all of them. That's *probably* not enough to cut it for Rs, but still a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, a Dem sweep is the single likeliest outcome, but a Warnock/Perdue split (while still unlikely) is a bit likelier than I would've guessed before polls closed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, we've got a decent cohort of rural, extremely Republican counties that are below 90% of November turnout levels. That's got to worry Rs, b/c we know at least DeKalb - the biggest Dem vote trove in the state - is going to be *above* 90% of its November turnout level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another possible GOP turnout problem: in Wayne Co. (rural SE GA), Perdue/Loeffler are running slightly behind Trump % margins (Perdue +55.6, Loeffler +56.0, Trump +57.2), and turnout is only at 88% of November levels. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Franklin Co. looks to be first deep red North GA county to fully report: Perdue +70.8 Loeffler +70.8 Trump (Nov.) +69.4 But the bad news for Rs: runoff turnout is only at 86.1% of November levels. That might not cut it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point, I'd rather be the Dems, esp. Warnock. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pulaski Co. (rural south GA) looks done: Perdue 2,546-1,105 (+39.4) Loeffler 2,524-1,126 (+38.4) Trump (Nov.) 2,815-1,230 (+38.9) Perdue/Loeffler running about even with Trump here, but turnout is just 90.3% of November levels. Dems could plausibly beat that in ATL. — PolitiTweet.org