Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Too early to say whether the special election in #TX06 will be highly competitive. It's been trending blue at the presidential level (Romney +17, Trump +12, Trump +3) but Wright (R) still won +8 in 2020. FWIW, the district is likely to get a lot redder after redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ec_schneider: Rep. Ron Wright (R-Texas) died Sunday night. He battled cancer and Covid-19. Wright's campaign confirms in a statement:… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New York's board of elections set to certify Claudia Tenney (R) the winner over Anthony Brindisi (D) by 109 votes in #NY22 today, per court order. The post-election proceedings in razor-thin #IA02 and #NY22 have, frankly, gone terribly for Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's this thing on TV everyone is asking if I've seen enough of — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@HunterSadler Taking out Saline and adding Lonoke upped Trump margin by 2 pts — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest redistricting controversy in AR? In Jan., Atty. Gen. Leslie Rutledge (R) hired former state GOP chair Doyle Webb to a $150k/yr job as the state's redistricting director. Webb's wife serves on the state supreme court that nixed a redistricting reform ballot measure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ARKANSAS: Republicans control redistricting for the first time in over a century, but don't look for much change at the congressional level. They'll be looking to lock in their current 4R-0D shutout (left), perhaps slightly shoring up #AR02 Rep. French Hill (R) (right). https://t.co/z3aA60gEWl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To clarify, yes - the new chair of AZ's commission, Erika Schupak Neuberg, is a tie-breaking independent. But the other four members are all partisan appointees - two Dems, two GOP. This isn't going to be a smooth ride. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By contrast, Ds will once again emphasize *competitiveness.* In the below scenario, #AZ01 retains all its tribal lands and stays competitive, a swingy new #AZ10 arrives in Scottsdale, and up to *six* seats are competitive - potentially making AZ ground zero for '22 House control. https://t.co/yaYnZk670q — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans will likely push for more *compactness* - including putting Mohave Co. in #AZ01, which could doom O'Halleran (D) as well as creating a new R-heavy #AZ10 anchored by fast-growing Pinal Co., possibly converting 5D-4R to 6R-4D (below). https://t.co/glRFn8eVUU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/Q9GVNatVpj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below... https://t.co/3OODezh41n — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m three states into my 43-state redistricting preview series at @CookPolitical, and honestly haven’t enjoyed writing this much in a long time. Arriving tomorrow: Arizona and Arkansas. Not arriving tomorrow: anything to do w/ MTG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why are there members of Congress who have been radicalized by falsehoods spread virally on the internet? Because tens of millions of *voters* have been radicalized by falsehoods spread virally on the internet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lost in this conversation: the reality there are bound to be more MTGs to come b/c the views she's expressed are *not that far* outside the mainstream of GOP primary voters' beliefs in a whole lot of deep-red districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More confirmation that the House GOP is roughly divided in thirds: - Freedom Caucus/MAGA true believers who voted vs. Cheney - Institutionalists/mods who voted to certify election - Floaters (including McCarthy) who mostly operate in fear of being overthrown by the first group — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even if Alabama keeps all seven of its seats, Dems are likely to sue in federal court to seek an additional Black majority district (#AL02 in the example below). Full analysis at @CookPolitical - and coming soon for every state. https://t.co/2VAdsF8pyY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alabama: even though Rs control redistricting, they may have no choice but to axe one of their own districts if the state loses a seat. Rep. Barry Moore (R)'s #AL02 (left) might be at greatest risk of being axed (right). https://t.co/Z5AlXxrlrs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alabama: even though Rs control redistricting, they may have no choice but to axe one of their own district if the state loses a seat - b/c the VRA protects the lone D seat, #AL07. Rep. Barry Moore (R)'s #AL02 (left) might be at greatest risk of being axed (right). https://t.co/ekoVyrVHqu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'll confess @TeenVogue wasn't the first magazine I was expecting to be interviewed for a redistricting story, but well done by @ZachariahSippy. https://t.co/yCgDprNLX0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @tripgabriel: This is the graphic you’ve been waiting for: precinct level voting data for the country https://t.co/0DDrgHHRAF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tune in and nerd out w/ us. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m old enough to remember when late Idaho Rep. Helen Chenoweth (R) was the biggest congressional villain for holding “endangered salmon bake” fundraisers back in the ‘90s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PatLohmann: Just got confirmation regarding the famous ballot with a stain from "blood or chocolate" in #NY22: Tenney's attorneys chal… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The good news for Rs? Claudia Tenney (R) is now quite likely to win the 2020 election in #NY22. The bad news for Rs? NY Dems could rather easily redraw #NY22 as a safe Dem seat and/or draw Tenney into Rep. Elise Stefanik (R)'s #NY21 in 2022 (as shown below). https://t.co/5CZOleMDyM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short: an egregious failure of Oneida Co. election administrators to process new registrations led to disenfranchisement of hundreds of (mostly R) Election Day voters. When the judge ordered a remedy, Tenney's lead expanded. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Terrific news for Tenney (R) in #NY22. It's pretty obvious why Brindisi (D)'s team only wanted to count 69 additional ballots they identified, not the hundreds more the court ruled in favor of counting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The question for '22 is the other side of the equation: how motivated will Ds be to turn out without Trump in office anymore? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The truth is that since '16, down-ballot Rs have struggled the most when Trump is *not* on the ballot ('18 blue wave, GA runoffs, etc.) From a raw political perspective, there's little incentive to "move beyond" him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Brindisi were to get 90% of the primary vote in Oneida, Madison and Chenango and a few Syracuse Dems split the Onondaga vote, sure. — PolitiTweet.org