Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AdamSerwer: The growing diversity of the United States heralds neither the doom of the GOP nor a coming of Democratic Party hegemony, b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: What https://t.co/HqDr5CAliR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite yes, his supporters were likeliest to only rank one candidate (25% have a blank second choice) and 40% of Adams supporters were exhausted on Garcia v Wiley — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@seanschuerman Yang loses to all, with Adams 64%, Garcia 62%, Wiley 60%, — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremytcohen @PoliticalKiwi https://t.co/P9q1s7n8Sa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi https://t.co/QalXMBTF0s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin They’re both 1 pt races — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting, btw, that we came pretty close to the scenario where Wiley ousted Garcia, only to lose to Adams, but then we find out today that Garcia would have won! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that NYC BOE has only published the raw data, and my analysis doesn't *exactly* replicate the original result. The difference is only a few hundred votes (attached), so I don't think it affects the analysis. Overvotes or late affidavits may be a factor https://t.co/XfwxxRTcFx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though interestingly, Wiley would have narrowly edged out Garcia, 50.6 to 49.4 -- with way more undervotes, at 24% of ballots -- in a hypothetical Wiley v. Garcia final round — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Eric Adams would have defeated Maya Wiley by 10 points, 54.9 to 45.1, if she had reached the final round of ranked choice balloting in the NYC Democratic primary, per ballot-level data published by the NYCBOE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @CoryMcCartan @CookPolitical @amyewalter wow — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict you may hav tweeted this, but what were the presidential results of those districts on your map? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit not sure if this is the explanation, but one mitigating factor is that they're suggesting the booster once it's been 8 months since your vaccine, which would apply to a very small fraction of people today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @CT_Bergstrom: 4. This results are confounded by age. Irrespective of disease status most unvaxxed are young; irrespective of vaccine st… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @DaveAHopkins maybe i'm missing something, but i don't see any extrapolation into the future anywhere in the thread — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @DaveAHopkins no, you're not. but i'm interpreting you to be implying that his case--that secular, long term decline in D rural strength has cancelled superficially favorable population decline in rural areas--hinges on cherry-picked data, and I think the chart plainly suggests that's not so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @DaveAHopkins his tweet is accompanied by a chart that would seem to suggest that his point holds in every election since 1972 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @richardmskinner: It’s really striking how many journalists have moved into open advocacy over the past few days. https://t.co/kfH1vIXbKD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @theNuzzy: “I started the process, all the troops are coming home, they (Biden) couldn’t stop the process. 21 years is enough. They (Bid… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I have no view on what any of this will mean for Biden's approval rating. It could obviously go down. But I don't think any similarity to the fall of Saigon is necessarily a devastating political precedent for Biden, and that's how people seem to be tweet about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you're wondering--I was--Saigon fell on the 264th day of the Ford administration, while today is the 208th day of the Biden administration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ford's approval rating was at its low point before the fall of Saigon, and it was quite a bit higher a month or two after the fall than it was at the time, and a Gallup poll in 8/75 credited getting troops out of Vietnam as being his biggest accomplishment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One minor note on the fall of Saigon: whatever embarrassment it may have meant for the United States or the Ford administration, it's not really my recollection that it hurt Ford politically or was an important issue in the 1976 campaign — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlexThomp: I still find this @margbrennan exchange the most illuminating/honest in how Biden thinks about Afghanistan “Don’t you bear… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NickRiccardi: What an incredible, horrifying story. A must-read https://t.co/BUk7ICzx8v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @karlbykarlsmith: British in 1812, tho? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MattGrossmann: Public opinion continued growing more liberal throughout the Trump administration & was at its most liberal point on rec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @DanAncona @whstancil in my telling (and tbh I think in any reasonable telling of the Piketty chart), the salient feature of both the Democratic Party and the European center-left is that they represented industrial labor, not how far they pushed their demands — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @DanAncona @whstancil yeah, i'm telling the story more in demographic than ideological terms here (and tbh i think that's slightly more in keeping with your initial framing about <35 year old college grads ) — PolitiTweet.org