Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DavidBegnaud: U.S. Army veteran Daniel Wilkinson, of Texas, died of a treatable illness because the Covid crisis left him without an av… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlecMacGillis: "...people without higher-education degrees don't only need material gains but also cultural recognition, if progressive… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlecMacGillis: Some strong Sherrod Brown vibes coming from Olaf Scholz, whose SPD (center-left) is edging ahead in German polls: "A cen… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NHC_Atlantic: Here are the 5 pm EDT Thu, Aug 26 Key Messages for Tropical Depression #Nine. The risk of life-threatening storm surge, d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@_Chris_Golding_ of course--it was a disaster that the Afghan government collapsed rapidly; it was a disaster that the Germans scythed through the Ardennes. but people are arguing that evacuation is a disaster, as well https://t.co/B6OnU24PU2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is the 'chaos' materially effecting the evacuation? Is the evacuation going worse than the numbers suggest? Or does the 'on the ground' chaos story miss the big picture, like if someone said Dunkirk was going disastrously bc of footage of German strafing? Something else? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is there an article attempting to reconcile the apparent strategic success of evacuating 100k people with the depiction of on the ground chaos, people unable to get through to the gate, etc? https://t.co/BHtWyY9i5M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RiegerReport: White House update on Afghanistan evacuations per White House pool: -13,400 evacuated by US and coalition forces over th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PatrickRuffini @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist to pull of 5 bush+10 CDs, you need something like 3 dukakis+40 CDs. i don't think that's there. you can generate ~1 D+40 CD out of minneapolis+st. paul (which today are still only worth 1 CD, despite presumably favorable pop chage). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PatrickRuffini @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist and i'd say the same for the precinct map good luck getting 5/8 bush+10 districts out of this https://t.co/W7DdQktR2j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PatrickRuffini @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist i think the county map in minnesota strongly suggests it could not be done — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PatrickRuffini @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist i don't have the precinct results for minnesota in 88, of course, but if you want to draw 5 safe GOP seats, you need 5/8 of minnesota's precincts to be able to add up to, say, bush+10, which you can slice however you want from there. i'm not sure that's possible (it's easy today) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PatrickRuffini @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist i didn't say they needed to be compact. i said that i'm not sure you can match a contemporary hypothetical GOP gerrymander in minnesota, even if with noncompact or even noncongruent districts! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist that's possible, but i don't see how it's credible to argue that spatial polarization doesn't meaningfully effect the ease of gerrymandering, given the basic theoretical relationship between spatial polarization and gerrymandering and that very concrete example in MN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @ElectProject @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist it's more than that! i wonder whether you could find precincts worth half of minnesota's population that add up to bush+10 in 1988, which you could then slice noncompactly (or even noncrugently!) into four GOP CDs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @Redistrict @gelliottmorris @DistrictBuilder @davesredist how? gerrymandering is impossible if there's no geographic polarization; almost by definition, geographic polarization make gerrymandering easier. how can you draw 5 safe GOP CDs in Minnesota in the late 1980s? https://t.co/QJHwZVscm4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @amanbatheja: Taliban spokesman in interview confirmed music would no longer be allowed in public. “Music is forbidden in Islam,” he sai… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mateagold: NEW: In scathing opinion, federal judge orders pro-Trump lawyers disciplined over lawsuit seeking to overturn 2020 election… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

agreed. there's more value in this question than people are giving it credit https://t.co/dzhnubOqrS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JohnJHarwood: SecState Blinken says US govt estimated that 6,000 Americans were in Afghanistan on Aug 14 4,500 have been evacuated sin… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @aaronecarroll: This. This. A thousand times, this. https://t.co/htjt2M1SEv https://t.co/MaVeokbmC2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MattGrossmann: views of welfare recipients affect racial stereotypes, racial resentment, individualistic explanations for racial inequa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @vkoganpolisci or if you'd prefer me to frame it this way: there's nothing about a D+3 PID with RVs that augurs for any unusual result on Biden's approval — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @vkoganpolisci maybe i don't understand your point, but all i'm saying is that it's quite typical for polls to show a 3 pt PID shift simply from noise week to week (let alone with possibility of actual chg over 8 mo) without these kind of huge topline shifts https://t.co/ojHCzBHTPE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @vkoganpolisci idk a 3 pt shift is pretty modest stuff for a poll that's not weighting on a measure of partisanship (and that's leaving aside the existential question about whether the January reading is the unbiased one), and the approval shift is not modest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I had no idea that this day (holiday?) existed (timed to the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact!) https://t.co/8UnOgrWowo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JohnJHarwood: Biden national security officials last week set goal of evacuating 5K-9K per day from Afghanistan this morning, WH says… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PippaN15: Cancel Culture: Myth or Reality? Pippa Norris First Published August 11, 2021 Research Article https://t.co/ZUOB3all6G Altme… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(This particular poll believes its weighting by education, but to match the 2017 exit poll--which itself isn't weighted by education) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Despite all that's left to be addressed in polling after 2020, there are still polls that haven't addressed a major cause of 2016's misfire, failure to weight by education https://t.co/eiEuVrJKjm https://t.co/5zGZiI7bAX — PolitiTweet.org