Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @OsitaNwanevu as i read some of the other responses to your post, i wonder whether understanding this historical comparison might actually interest you, btw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @OsitaNwanevu my point was that it's not new, fwiw. i don't think that's a critique *unless* you don't realize there's an element of rediscovering the wheel involved in saying democrats should do popular things that appeal to white moderates and accounts for individualism, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I doubt there's any real path to legislative action at this stage. But one obstacle to subversion-related legislation--an absence of serious legal/policy thinking on the issue--is fading. And for the most part, those ideas still haven't been put to the test in Washington — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Subversion is still somewhat on the sideline in Congress, where the D bill is still not really tailored to addressing the issue. And it still bares more of the hallmarks of an effort to achieve the facade of intra-party unity than a serious legislative effort — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As the noise of new GOP voting laws has faded, it's become more obvious that subversion is the more serious risk to democracy. The persistence of the 'big lie,' Trump's grip on the GOP, the Eastman memo, and more, have helped keep the issue in the lime-light. It won't go away — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When I wrote about subverison and the Georgia law in early April, the term hadn't really even been once over the preceding month. It was badly overshadowed by voter suppression. Now there are congressional hearings, conferences and real if early ideas for dealing with it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not yet really reflected in the congressional legislation, but election subversion has belatedly been getting serious attention in recent weeks. https://t.co/VghTaO4u93 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @gelliottmorris looking forward to wisconsin creating 7 CDs in MIL/MAD, each weighted to .14 of a member, and one CD for the rest of the state, weighted to 7 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris a CD could be required to consist of several contiguous PUMAs, each preserved in whole except as necessary to achieve equal pop, with a requirement about the number of PUMAs that must touch more than one PUMA of the same CD, so as to ensure compactness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I computed PUMA mean-median gaps, both by state and nationwide, a few years back and they're still biased by 2-3 points toward the GOP in '12 and '16, presumably reflecting Dem geographic disadvantages (don't remember effect of unequal population, if any) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The equivalent in the US would be something like our PUMAs, which I continue to like as a redistricting building-block https://t.co/uQqQvH4IF8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing about Canadian federal election districts is that they have very unequal populations (though they are drawn nice and compactly, following jurisdictional lines, by nonpartisan officials) https://t.co/Cb5AOpE4iQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The specific policy priorities are misaligned with the strategic aims, but the strategic question is the important question--and the Democratic effort on voting rights still hasn't quite grappled with it yet (despite a slimmer bill) https://t.co/861h1lxdMt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lengthy but a comprehensive treatment, often on well-worn ground--culminating in a pitch for a narrow effort to protect against election subversion https://t.co/Oim4oMk21Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They need to start making slots for additional check-mark on election results graphics https://t.co/Dwebt2jPFE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi might have been happier if they pushed for all of the mountain-ski communities with boulder — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One factor is that IIRC there was push back against the San Luis Valley/Pubelo in the eastern Colorado CD; fixing that forces the Denver metro CDs into the ski slopes, etc. I don't really think that's an overriding consideration, personally, but if it was it might help explain — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(Another alternative to a more Dem-friendly 5-3 split might have been something like 4-2-2, by allowing enough western slope weirdness to make it narrowly Biden, while still more-or-less leaving the region intact) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that is not really surprising to me is that there are three GOP CDs. I understand why that upsets some Democrats, but it's hard to get to 6-2 without weirdness on the western slope. But I am surprised that the earlier push back didn't lead to a more Dem median CD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another strange thing is that the maps gradually became somewhat less fair and more GOP leaning, by partisan fairness metrics, and I'm not really sure why. Even the preliminary plan--which seems more reasonable to me on other respects--was met with some push back from Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's strange in a few ways. One is that it goes through a lot of twists and turns to achieve relatively little? Taking all of their general goals/choices for granted, IDK what they've gained over this simple one--which has the added edge of the 35% Latino VAP CD as D+20 https://t.co/AL3QVKdE7e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I continue to find this map to be pretty strange, but one thing that I find less surprising is that there are lots of Democrats aren't thrilled by it https://t.co/XbqInHFhZO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias maybe? it's taken some dramatic lurches, though i'd note that both were in the direction of more education polarization at the end of a democratic term (which makes some sense, if you believe there are traditional wwc dems out of step with the party) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias this is a trend that democrats can try to mitigate (say, do disproportionately better among wwc in a landslide, like clinton 1992; try not to fall so far in scranton in 2020). but it doesn't seem credible to reverse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias not back to 2012 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias or put differently, your position makes sense if you think of education polarization shifts as 'volatile.' it makes little sense if you think of educational polarization shifts as a trend — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias and on the empirical question: the dems have won the pv by 4 or more 3x since 2004, but white no college voters haven't shifted materially to the left, with respect to the national vote, since 1992 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias that's very strange to me, given our shared belief in education polarization as (more or less) a function of modernization theory (postmaterialism, postindustrialism, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias or to be blunt: given midterm penalty, a party at 52% nationwide that enters office at 50/50 in the senate, house is simply not going to be favored to hold congress — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @EricLevitz @HeerJeet @chrislhayes @mattyglesias totally. though here again, i do think your real issue is national vote share not educational polarization — PolitiTweet.org