Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos that doesn't mean that there isn't a group of people who doesn't adhere to that conventional wisdom, of course. it is just strange to frame it as contrarian while largely addressing a group of people who more-or-less agree/know it already — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos it's certainly possible, though i don't get the sense that these folks are in a very different bubble than my own — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of what's being advanced under the popularism umbrella, including the constituent arguments about post-materialism, individualism, the median voter being a white suburbanite with conservative racial attitudes, etc. https://t.co/j7GrYyb3iP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's this very strange thing right now where decades of conventional wisdom is being resurfaced and framed as contrarian and, well, as I said: I find it very strange — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PitchingNinja: Casey Sadler, 94mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 26th consecutive scoreless appearance (Mariners franchise record). https://t.co/j8rn50fk… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This particular formulation--'accepted' partisan fairness test--is particularly unhelpful. I can even imagine a clever argument that there are no accepted partisan fairness tests of the sorts Democrats imagined (like EG, mean-median), not with the GOP dissenting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a place, though, where the failure to define a serious partisan fairness test is going to get reformers into problems. It barely even matters what the test is, just that you choose it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The map, to my mind, is almost exactly what you would expect if you ignored partisanship altogether. That's not the same as a gerrymander, of course. But it is definitely not an effort to achieve partisan fairness, even if that's very difficult to pull off in Michigan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The map, to my mind, is almost exactly what you would expect if you ignored partisanship altogether. That's not the same as a gerrymander, of course. But it does not reflect much of an effort to achieve partisan fairness, even if that's very difficult to pull off in Michigan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I deleted a prior tweet about the Michigan congressional map, which implied the state doesn't have an explicit partisan fairness criteria for redistricting. It does, though without embracing a specific test https://t.co/OR74e0jgnt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf oh, wow. if i ever knew that i forgot it--the map certainly doesn't offer any reason to remember it. will delete/correct — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Michigan is one of those states where the Democrats have a pretty serious 'geography' problem. Without explicit partisan fairness criteria, something more-or-less like this was probably the likeliest outcome here, though obviously it will disappoint Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No surprises here, though all of the maps sending one of the two Detroit CDs go into Macomb instead of Oakland County is a slightly worse outcome for Democrats in the Macomb-centered CD than I had thought https://t.co/uQWKdT4UF2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nhannahjones @tbonier @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson it's resonated among activists, and there's debate about who is alienated by it. but the case i'm advancing here: i don't see much reason to think it's particularly resonant with less engaged voters, compared to more traditional brands of left-liberal politics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nhannahjones @tbonier @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson my best effort at summarizing it: it's an intellectual and moralist discourse, often advanced with both righteousness and academic jargon, aimed at attacking down systems of domination and critiquing liberalism/culture for its complicity in maintaining unequal power structures — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nhannahjones @tbonier @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson i'm mainly using it in this context of this thread--others used it first--which appears to mean whatever matt yglesias would like to criticize. i think my subsequent tweet offers one somewhat concrete example of it in practice, but it's hardly exclusive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @tbonier @nhannahjones @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson it's not really beneath the pre-obama norm, though — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @nhannahjones @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson idk off hand, but it's a good question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @nhannahjones @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson to give a simple example, my strongly held prior is that a dem who talked in real world terms of improving jobs/business/schools/whatever in black communities would fare vastly better than one talking about racial equity and structural racism, as if they're in your seminar class — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @nhannahjones @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson and so while i def think a more vocal Dem commitment to addressing issues facing black voters could help mobilize black turnout, i'd guess that the successful version of that effort would not feel like 'wokeness,' in terms of its emphasis, ideas, discourse, social norms — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @nhannahjones @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson quite possibly, and maybe even likely. i will return to what i said earlier, though, which is that i do think it is a mistake to assume that the way to reach irregular/persuadable voters is by using the ideas and language of the very most engaged activists, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nhannahjones @jon_m_rob @tbonier @mattyglesias @hakeemjefferson i don't think so either, as i said. i was flipping the issue around, and noting that there's also not much reason to assume that 'wokeness'--however defined--would be terribly likely to sway persuadable black voters, especially those who voted trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @tbonier @mattyglesias @nhannahjones @hakeemjefferson and as a general proposition, i think it's almost always a mistake to assume that the persuadable voters of a subgroup share the political preferences of the majority of their subgroup! and i think we see more of that among black and latino voters than any other group — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @tbonier @mattyglesias @nhannahjones @hakeemjefferson idk whether they're 'alienated' by wokeness, but i think our polling (and common sense, tbh; i don't think folks receptive to wokeness are voting trump) suggest it's probably not the way for democrats to sway persuadable black and latino voters https://t.co/dtH06u3HkL https://t.co/gnEC9Y11ka — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jpstinebr blue rose better be a twin peaks reference — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In any case, it does fit the broader pattern in state polling bias over the years https://t.co/iGSg1mviov — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(this only holds for the final recall polling average, to be clear. there was no point where the CA-GOV race appeared to be competitive in '18) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(this only holds for the final recall polling average, to be competitive. there was no point where the CA-GOV race appeared to be competitive in '18) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though interestingly, the recall polling average was almost the exact same as the CA-GOV '18 polling average, which underestimated Newsom by a fairly similar amount https://t.co/KPztjw3ly9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @nickahamed @johnlray surely viral, righteous, outraged, indignant, moralist tweets and tv segments generate stronger vibes than most things — PolitiTweet.org