Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But undoing and preventing losses are really not the same thing. Now that the GOP *has* won these voters, Democrats wouldn't rebound back to '12 levels even if no one talked about race for the next three years. The old bonds of Democratic loyalty and identity are gone — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Lots of people act like those are the same thing. They seem to suppose that Democrats would suddenly snap back among white working class voters, if only race became less salient in politics or if Democrats would start talking to white rural folks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's start by noting what question I'm addressing: can Democrats *win* white working class voters back? That's actually not the same as why did Democrats *lose* white working class voters over the last decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Since a few people have misread this aspect of the thread, I'd like to explain how my emphasis on an economic message here interacts with the fact that Democrats have plainly lost ground because of cultural/racial issues https://t.co/LU21j90YSk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: New: Arizona Vote Review ‘Made Up the Numbers,’ Election Experts Say An analysis found that a hand recount of votes by Repub… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i'm sure that there are some fine policies on that side of the chart, but i don't think that a handful of isolated message-tested policy initiatives have a serious chance to rekindle democratic loyalty and identity that existed pre-16, or get them to abandon trump-allegiances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i didn't make a case about the role of culture v. economics in explaining what happened v. 16. i've made a case that their ability to *win* these folks on economics has been badly eroded over the last ten years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias keep in mind, that's the burden on democrats at this point. they need to *win* them back; the presumption about who these folks vote for, if democrats don't upset them, has entirely flipped since '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias let me ask you this: in your vision, what exactly would democrats *win* these voters on? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm a patient person when it comes to polling, especially so far from an election. So I'm inclined to just wait and see how things shift in the months ahead. In the meantime, it's a pretty interesting and high-stakes question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's approval ratings slide among key Democratic constituencies (except, seemingly as always, whites with a college degree). The big question: is it a blip or a danger sign? https://t.co/4gDc4iJdV0 https://t.co/pQXEG1vcSy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BrianStryker: This is so dead on. I did a poll recently for @ThirdWayTweet that has Republicans with a TWO TO ONE advantage on fighting… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I said a few days ago that a lot of political commentary is fantasy politics, and I'd say that for anyone who thinks the Democrats can *actually* go back to their 2004-2012 messages and numbers. There are a few issues where... maybe. But it's usually a little ridiculous — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I said a few days ago that a lot of political commentary is fantasy politics, and I'd say that for anyone who thinks the Democrats can *actually* go back to their 2004-2012 messages. and numbers. There are a few issues where... maybe. But it's usually a little ridiculous — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And even if the Dems did go back to that message, there's no way it could be as central as it was. It's not 2004 anymore--there are other groups and states that Democrats have to address now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even if Dems did go back to that message, it wouldn't be as credible as it was, their contrast w GOP wouldn't be as clear, it wouldn't have as broad of a base of people to buy it, and they'd have the added challenge of having moved left on other issues since '12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as I know, there are no credible policies to really address that. For a long time, Dems got by with general anti-corporatism, opposition to outsourcing, etc. They were aided in that by the GOP being the ones in power, presiding over steady manufacturing job losses etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The rise of globalization, an intra-national race to the bottom stuff, automation, and environmental regulations (like getting rid of the coal industry) are basically eliminating the old industrial base of the democratic party, here and across the western world — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Think about what Obama ran on in 2012: outsourcing, private equity, protecting the autoindustry. This is not twentieth century welfare state liberalism, it's not industrial unionism. It's defensive job protection in an era of globalization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But maybe most of all, the Democrats don't really have a credible set of economic messages for the Midwestern working class anymore. That will probably provoke a whole new thread of criticism, but I'd just consider Obama '12 for a moment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are lots of reasons. Things are really polarized; it's harder to go back than get here. D coalition has changed in ways that make it almost comical to go back, too. That's not to say there's nothing Dems could do to soften the edges, but nothing fundamental is available — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another set of questions mainly relates to the future for Democrats, in particular. My own view is that the changes from 12-20 are largely baked. The idea that Iowa's going to lean Blue again, or that Dems are going to 60% in the Mahoning Valley, seems far-fetched — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm addressing some critiques, here https://t.co/utURJNeO7V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of this plainly added up to a huge weakness for Democrats, that Trump was obviously exploiting by June 16 https://t.co/hE9HxCjiwh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not only is there no messaging to the white working class on those kind of issues, the second Obama term leads off by emphasizing all of their worst issues for this group: immigration, guns--and that's before ISIS, refugees, BLM/race/policing add to the challenge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't know what the counterfactual looks like: I don't know what it would look like if Obama's second-term was predicated on the recognition that he won with northern working class voters, with a traditional working class pitch. What I know is they went the *opposite* direction — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It creates an opening for Trump, who gets to run on all of those issues. He runs against trade, runs against China, etc. Clinton has nothing, and basically just has the fundamentally liberal 'stronger together' take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That aspect of the Democratic Party--in many ways the foundation of the late twentieth century Democratic Party in the northern US--simply disappears, and that's before talking about TPP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obama ran on the autobailout. He attacked Romeny as a rapacious plutocrat who would outsource jobs and help corporations. Bain Capital It's hard to remember now, but for 40 years Dems ran on outsourcing in the Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The traditional Democratic message to the white working class on economics--especially the kind of industrial-era messaging of the Democratic Party, which is the source of their strength in the Midwest--basically evaporated — PolitiTweet.org