Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann don't have one, but i wrote it up in a pew poll in '13 https://t.co/4ERPFSdFOy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

yes--whites, women, voters over age 50, suburbanites, no college grads--are all 'majority' groups, if only narrowly. but that does not mean that white, no college women, over age 50 should dominate in political thinking or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I do think that the approach in this article--several archetypal kinds of self-reported persuadable voters--is more useful than constructing a median voter out of majority/median demographic groups https://t.co/304sqFWzvn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@69olimrb Kerry home state edge --> Romney home state edge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The state exit polls actually showed Obama faring much worse--like a net-6 pts worse IIRC--among white voters in the semi-decisive state of Ohio! Anyone looking at the county results map on Election Night could tell that probably wasn't true. It wasn't. https://t.co/npNnWjTXio — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That was a big part of it (though even the state exit polls had some serious biases) https://t.co/9vHewsUW1z https://t.co/cYrPi8CFGL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For some context on that, it is worth remembering that House Democratic popular vote tallies would have lost the Electoral College / Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By winning a group of disproportionately white, college educated, affluent, male voters who often cast ballots for GOP candidates downballot. It's not what any wing of the Democratic Party wanted https://t.co/MobXaJlEbA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanDEnos: Summary of my reaction to the last week on my twitter-feed: the way in which @davidshor has become the prototype of a conser… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By this 2019 polling, I think it's pretty clear that a lot of the foundations for either the WWC persuasion strategy and the progressive mobilization strategy had really eroded (I also thought that was true based on 18 results). I think that was pretty clear in 2020, too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I bring all this back up because my 'interactions' seem frozen in 2014-2018 debates. It was plausible to say Ds should focus on turnout after '14, or focus on reclaiming the Obama-Trump northern, white working class voter after '16 These cases have gotten a lot worse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/EQWGsvEsKw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while this poll is two years old now, it is probably the last unbiased battleground polling we had of the 2020 cycle (at least v. the result). I think lots of the lessons from this series are still very worth keeping in mind https://t.co/X9blPajNiN https://t.co/sMm3GUjVJF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while the poll is two years old... there's a chance it was the last major set of unbiased polling in the race. A lot of what was in this serious is probably still quite relevant, IMO https://t.co/X9blPajNiN https://t.co/gLb8uOFYWa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This article from 2019 seems relevant to some of the conversations in my Twitter feed this morning: swing voters aren't really disproportionately white working class anymore I think a lot of the findings in this piece are reflected in the 2020 outcome https://t.co/dtH06tM6td https://t.co/aWfPyhEde7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh my prior tweet posits that a fairly important element of addressing this problem is with higher-level messaging, above the policy-agenda level: you need to figure out what you'd like to say the democratic party *is,* who it is for, what it's goals are, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh maybe censor more than alleviate. you're arguing for a poll-driven filter on them. in your world, the democratic party is fundamentally *for* progressive activists, with their demands mediated by a popularist, poll-yielding commissar — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh as i said, i think 'project 54%' wouldn't inherently necessitate any regional, demographic, or whatever direction. it certainly wouldn't want to lose the midwest; it would avoid strategies that really risk that but could conclude the best chance for decisive gains lies elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh and fwiw, i do think that this higher-level message question--above policy, and at the basic level of how a party conceives of itself and explains its goals to the nation, groups--is more important than message-tested policies and something you haven't really addressed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh To take the extreme case--and I'm not saying this *is* the conclusion of a 'project 54%,' I'm just saying it's conceivable under that framework but not yours--Democrats could decide to lean-in on trade, immigration, inclusive racial liberalism, party of future stuff to win Sun B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @DavidAstinWalsh I'd guess they have some key things in common, like not using the language and ideas of the academic left or something. But I think it's at least possible that policies, target demographics and broader messages look quite a bit different than Operation win-back Ohio/Iowa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TylerDinucci @jon_m_rob I do. But I don’t think it’s the ideological heterogeneity she benefits from — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob being seen as disloyal to your party is a great way to break down polarization but it’s not a strategy for a party lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @reidepstein: The spokesman for the group pushing for an Arizona-style audit in Wisconsin, whose name is Jefferson Davis, appeared on OA… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not exactly, though Hispanic Texans approved of deporting the Haitian refugees, 52-32 https://t.co/KXI8GwjmGB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's approval rating among Texas Hispanics is at 36% in the latest Quinnipiac poll, with a 26% approval on his handling of the border https://t.co/LiYT6EY8jB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yeselson i think you'd have to hope that the effect of social democracy is more persuasive than the message, which has never really seemed to excite working class whites all that much in the US — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Any reasonable historical analysis would find that Democrats *win* white working class voters on economic issues, even if they lose them on race/culture/etc. If Dems don't have as strong of a message as they had in '12--and I don't think they do--they don't have anything. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To rebound, today's Dems wouldn't merely need to avoid alienating these voters on racial issues. They would need a real message to win them back. And that message would have to be an economic message. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And that's entirely leaving aside the possibility that new bonds of Trumpy loyalty has taken hold, which would probably be impossible for Democrats to overcome. — PolitiTweet.org