Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Mike_AFL @davidshor @ezraklein @jon_m_rob you did it right; i didn't notice you were replying to shor. carry on! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Mike_AFL @davidshor @ezraklein @jon_m_rob i thought you stayed off twitter! i'm agreeing that rubio/normal GOP would have done better. i'm just saying that i think trump exploited an opening as much as he created it himself, and that shapes how i think about education polarization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @ezraklein @davidshor @Mike_AFL looking at the pollster site, looks like there was a huge online v. phone gap on this! that would have been fun to see play out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @ezraklein @davidshor @Mike_AFL i honestly haven't looked at this in years, but my recollection is that it was pretty stable--if a secular trend https://t.co/d8ycCiZmIk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Mike_AFL @ezraklein @davidshor @jon_m_rob it took more than a mic! https://t.co/xLmz8ICuiI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Mike_AFL @ezraklein @davidshor @jon_m_rob totally--though trump didn't come from nowhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ezraklein @davidshor @Mike_AFL @jon_m_rob https://t.co/7D1hzSzJc7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @tbonier @rp_griffin @karlbykarlsmith @macwrites @dskamper @jbouie @hakeemjefferson i think that's a plausible case! i just don't think you've proven your various arguments about what is or isn't popular/motivating among these voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @davidshor @rp_griffin @karlbykarlsmith @macwrites @dskamper @jbouie @hakeemjefferson I will add our limited research on this group https://t.co/o1xUKJLYJq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @davidshor @rp_griffin @karlbykarlsmith @macwrites @dskamper @jbouie @hakeemjefferson But there's really very little in this discussion about what these voters actually want. These debates just play out as elites trying to justify their own agendas by arguing their preferences work among these voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @davidshor @rp_griffin @karlbykarlsmith @macwrites @dskamper @jbouie @hakeemjefferson There are two competing assertions: one, based on demographics, that they're likely to buy progressive arguments and really just need to be mobilized; the other, based on trump strength and Dem primary outcomes, that progressive arguments don't resonate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @davidshor @rp_griffin @karlbykarlsmith @macwrites @dskamper @jbouie @hakeemjefferson I'll jump in here to note that while there appears to be a consensus, on both sides of this popularism debate, about the importance of appealing to persuadable nonwhite voters, no one has brought the goods on exactly how to do it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More realistically, I think there would be explicit push back against the left. I don't think that would need to be a Sister Souljah moment, unless you think the aforementioned free speech example from Obama counts (I don't) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Realistically, I do think there would be a need to explicitly push back against the left. I don't think that would need to be a Sister Souljah moment, unless you think the aforementioned free speech example from Obama counts (I don't) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the best case for Shorism (and i doubt true) is that liberal Obama 04-08 type rhetoric--unifying, emphasis on equal opportunity, acknowledging legitimacy of other side views--alone would be enough to distinguish a candidate from the left https://t.co/WaozTWqO1Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This would require political campaigns to do something a little bit more than simple popularism. It would candidates to distinguish themselves from the left in forthright ways, that I don't see Shor et al. arguing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the most optimistic case for Shorism is that the rise of the left /overton window makes Obama style liberalism popular. Consider the reactions here https://t.co/GWfG5RU7wy https://t.co/uJZ2w95pBj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's totally reasonable to argue that campaigns shouldn't embrace ideas before they are popular. It is not realistic to argue that activists shouldn't advocate for ideas before they're popular. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that popularism doesn't actually argue for them to go away. It argues for a filter: subject progressive ideas to a poll-based test, and get rid of the least popular things they advocate. That may be an option for campaigns, but it's not for activists — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The shift to the left is driven by long-term changes like rising educational attainment and generational replacement. Dems are liberal now. There are new groups and ideas. They'll have to be placated. There may be tactical ways to do it, but making them go away isn't an option — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Less obvious are vast changes on the Democratic side, as well. Obama didn't have to talk much about race in '12 because... it wasn't 2013 yet. Today, there's a large vocal progressive left. It can't simply be undone. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3. You can't rerun '12 in '24. Most obviously, there are huge changes in the Republican Party--just discussed--that cannot be undone. There were two sides of the 2012 campaign, after all: Obama and Romney. You don't get to fight Romney '12 again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This was a huge reorientation from Romney to Trump. It was a deeply traumatic event for the GOP. And I think if Democrats want to undo the last 10 years, that they would probably need to think on that kind of scale--not just saying a few less unpopular things — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For comparison, think about how Trump *won* these voters. He did not simply 'defuse' Obama' 12 issues. He did not simply raise issue salience. He totally reoriented the GOP toward winning wwc Dems, from trade, immigration, crime, race, China, guns, etc https://t.co/hE9HxCjiwh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2. Popularism does not seem to have any obvious options for *winning* votes back. It is mainly about *defusing* the issues that hurt Democrats. But if you buy my framing that Democrats need to *win* votes back, they need something powerful to lure back now GOP-leaning voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

According to data from Pew, Midwestern whites have gone from R+6 to R+14 by party ID from pre-12 campaign to post-20. Nationwide, whites without a degree have gone from R+12 to R+23 over the same period This is a formidable obstacle to achieving '12 results again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The '12 campaign was an exercise in reassembling the Obama coalition: getting a bunch of voters who usually voted D and voted for Obama to vote for him again, despite a mediocre economy. The Shor task is now to *win* votes back. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The last ten years have had a huge effect on the partisan allegiance of millions of white working class voters who used to vote for Democrats. The old bonds of party loyalty are gone. They don't default to Democrats anymore. Many are now just Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1. Leaving feasibility aside for a moment, a rerun of the 2012 campaign in 2022/2024 does not yield 2012 electoral outcomes. It just doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So lets assume that all of this is more or less what Shor would like. Is it feasible? What would accomplish for the Democrats at this point? I'll make three points: — PolitiTweet.org