Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd go back to my original piece on this topic from April, which I think largely echos the analysis here. Certification, eligibility challenges, partisan administration, and capitalizing on legal ambiguities are all stand out as vulnerabilities https://t.co/ibJ0BovSrN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Have to agree that the focus on the Electoral Count Act seems to have come at the expense of other subversion risks. The most serious subversion threats start much earlier in the process, with certification standing out as the key nexus point https://t.co/zUmEFyaUTf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's easy to argue both sides--though it does depend on the counterfactual. Clinton/Edwards (lol) had weaknesses of their own compared to a more typical Democrat who might have won without such a powerhouse field McCain's strength also relevant https://t.co/E34bpMJzfg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kabir_here: New @CBSNews/@YouGov poll on Virginia governor race: Biden/Trump loom large in nationalized contest McAuliffe +3 under bas… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias idk, the shor pill features both an empirical diagnosis for what ails Democrats and a prescription for what they can do about it. this list of 11 points is arguably entirely on the diagnosis side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll never know what would have happened if the Dems '08 were more like '06. Obama had huge strengths of his own. It's hard to weigh the pros and cons. But it's not hard to imagine a real wipeout. Obama was thought to have underperformed the fundamentals at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And despite choosing the 'mobilization' candidate, Obama nonetheless made his biggest gains in... Hawaii, Indiana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Utah. He won Wisconsin by 14 pts, Michigan by 16. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems in '06 just won by 8 pts and made huge gains across the white, working class north (not the suburbs, as many thought they would) in part with this shtick on culture. Incumbent GOP Sens were *crushed* in PA/OH. IN '0 isn't *quite* as big of a fluke as its sometimes made out https://t.co/qQfC3bsQZH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving aside the actual options for Dems in '08, the opportunity was plainly historic. Bush's ratings in the 20s. And the Democrats did understand post-04 that moderation, especially on cultural issues, was a key — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even crazier is that the actual 'persuasion' alternatives--Clinton and Edwards--clearly posed some huge risks for Democrats of their own in hindsight! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obama won a decisive enough victory, with a great Dem showing downballot. So there's not a lot of reason for Democrats to dwell on how things might have gone differently there. But choosing the mobilization candidate at that moment is a real historical turning point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of the conversation about the fate of the Dems centers on the post-12 era, but this is a reminder that 08 was an inflection point as well--when Dems really did choose the relatively liberal, activist-backed candidate (even if he was tactful about it) https://t.co/rmBbtRP9RX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MattZeitlin: more evidence that giving people more information about the world makes them more distrustful and polarized — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that case on the difficulty of a northern white working class revival in mind, I'll return to a point I made in a different thread with Shor: popularism may be more compelling as a 'project 54%'--a bid for a larger majority, even realignment--than as 'project win back OH/IA' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/AQ5I4boZZg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is there a recent article summarizing just how close the US is to 'normal'? What percent of schools have reopened? What portion of remote workers have returned to the office? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @davidshor “A ditch in every yard” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: Honestly @Nate_Cohn, this is probably my best guess on the kind of thing that could plausibly make a dent in education polar… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS @owasow totally (though fwiw, it was my understanding that shor thought police reform was extremely popular) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS and our polls did show his defense wasn't effective, even if it seemed like trump's offense wasn't paying off based on topline numbers https://t.co/JnGUjDxUHk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS in terms of my view of biden's defense on policing though, i do think it was my view at the time https://t.co/e4xhs1pED9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS i'm sad to say that a lot of the conclusions i reached based on pre-election polls in late october don't hold up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS in our polling at the time, voters overwhelmingly didn't think biden had done enough to condemn violence, were split on whether he backed defund the police, etc. my own recollection: he didn't play strong defense until after the RNC, by which time it was too late — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I thought this @IanHaneyLopez op-ed was *the* very best of the campaign on Trump's strength among nonwhite voters https://t.co/ySLkgu6auY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another example of how the debate over 'shorism' doesn't always proceeding from shared assumptions, esp on race. If I had to guess, I would have thought popularists would be fine with RCN, as it's Obama-like liberal-not-left unifying rhetoric. But IDK! https://t.co/Op6ynIcYtp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is kind of an obvious finding, yet it is tedious and difficult to reach if you have to apply the Gingles test district by district. And it's a finding that wasn't possible when nonwhite voters were nowhere near a majority (minority representation wouldn't shift mean-median) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take Texas: Non-Hispanic whites are 43% of the voting age pop. Whites are 51% in the median district on the Senate approved congressional map. That's vote dilution on its face. Using CVAP, white voters get to elect government of choice, even though it's contested — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today the demographic picture is a lot different. Now, nonwhite voters--collectively--represent a majority or near majority of some states. That district level analysis winds up making it harder to state the obvious about a racial gerrymander. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The traditional thinking is premised on a world where nonwhite voters are a distinct minority. As a result, vote dilution claims center on a district-by-district analysis, where you look for areas where nonwhite voters could represent a majority, identify cracking/packing, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that's interesting to consider is how changing demographics have undermined the traditional way of thinking about racial gerrymandering. — PolitiTweet.org