Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth July polls: CO: C+13; NV: C+4; USA: C+3; IA: T+2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sahilkapur: Monmouth national poll Clinton 43% (-4 since June) Trump 40% (+0) ** DEMS: Clinton 88% GOP: Trump 81% IND: Trump leads 4… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DannyFranklin0 @RonBrownstein @ForecasterEnten @ThePlumLineGS bc their real point--that T has a huge col+w issue--still stands — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ijessesmith @ThePlumLineGS @BarryCaro @ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein if you acct for age/edu, then old well educ black women are! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS @BarryCaro @ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein clinton is doing better among older/better edu vt than obama. hence, stronger w lv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS @BarryCaro @ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein education and age are the strongest demographic correlates of turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BarryCaro @ThePlumLineGS @ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein true, and may be helping her in the LV/RV splits in some recent polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TVMoJoe yeah, there's some truth there. hard to be 100% sure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS @ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein agree, my pt is pedantic; it's a huge problem for them to be doing this badly w col+w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten @RonBrownstein @ThePlumLineGS forgive me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, not to be pedantic, but pre-election polls in '08 showed O ahead among white col+ cc: @RonBrownstein, @ForecasterEnten @ThePlumLineGS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Heading into conventions, the polls look like 2012: a Clinton lead, but a bigger educ. gap https://t.co/1H1SACU314 https://t.co/BR6n1T7ytP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mikiebarb: RNC top brass had to explain to Trump why Don King couldn't speak at convention: he stomped a man to death. https://t.co/lS8… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I had totally forgotten about this (from @mckaycoppins great piece). Imagine this happening again... https://t.co/tVhDFZGeDi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jonathanchait: Amazing @mckaycoppins story on Trump's resentment at the elites who refuse to take him seriously. A classic. https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can see the case in a more sophisticated model that can control for house and mode effects ( still debatable). Simple avg? Come on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't understand the case for including Rasmussen, or others that can't sample ppl w/out a landline, in a simple polling avg (RCP) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: More from the new NBC/WSJ poll: Majorities back free trade (55%), immigration (56%), despite rhetoric on '16 campaign… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: @Nate_Cohn Whites no college: Trump 55%, Clinton 33% Whites college: Clinton 43%, Trump 42% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mmurraypolitics did you guys release a result for white col v. no col, or nonwhite voters? if not, would you share? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@steph_bello y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos https://t.co/SAemQ27N6i — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos no, i'm not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AdamBlumMPA @conorsen https://t.co/auLG46Gv6J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what the RV polls said in 2012 https://t.co/auLG46Gv6J https://t.co/dMgY9IZjbV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The flaw is that people are comparing with exits. Apples to apples comp shows much more stability https://t.co/eL3R0xZrQj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Extra special subgroup of this brand: then insist that Clinton's actually winning by even more than the polls say — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My favorite brand of polling analysis right now: talk about how much Clinton is outperforming Obama by subgroup, even though topline ~= 12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@evilsax no — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DannyFranklin0 @IChotiner i think we're absolutely at the point where rasmussen should not be included in a simple average — PolitiTweet.org