Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@IronyOfHistory party registration is. that's not the same thing as self-ID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MisterTackle @cooleymatthew that's party registration--that's fixed and you can weight by that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cooleymatthew all polls weight their samples to match demographics. if you're polling off of a voter file, you use the demogs. from file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PalmMeadowsFarm in the midterms, black voters were 21.4% of the electorate. that's probably the floor there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cooleymatthew they then let respondents answer unknowns, like party ID or vote choice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cooleymatthew when pollsters conduct surveys, they adjust their surveys to match things that are "known"--like race/sex/gender — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@cooleymatthew race, age, sex are known about registered voters in a NC. party identification is not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

SurveyUSA has done two polls of NC this year, and neither has been in the ballpark on the composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ALIEXFOLGUEIRA yeah. if there's an NC poll that's 27% black, that'll get called out too. there aren't any, at least right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I accept that pollsters get bad subgroups. It happens (and white % is good for Ds). But electorate is a choice https://t.co/F5Bm06Mv2L — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MadaGasp i haven't said that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22) https://t.co/qnYePAMYLt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RotoPat and NE-1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RotoPat depends on how he gets landslided, i suppose. i'm guessing you don't count MO. AK and SC would be next, IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @gdebenedetti: More D moves: In addition to cutting back in CO, Clinton super PAC Priorities is also scaling back its VA TV ad buy in th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ESPNStatsInfo: Edwin Díaz (@Mariners) recorded his 50th career K in 25⅓ IP, the fastest of any pitcher who made his MLB debut since 189… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @emmaroller: Source: These signs have been popping up in the Rayburn men's bathrooms https://t.co/ExfRaCDzqO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK whether Team Trump has the ability to turn a lot of money into an effective campaign. But they have the money https://t.co/XhhZFy8FUU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: NEW: In less than 2 months, according to his campaign, Trump has virtually erased financial deficit against Clinton. ht… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @fmanjoo: This quote https://t.co/BAzUzFIEXa https://t.co/SYI5v7PSTT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @conorsen: One of GA's electoral college members fled Vietnam in the 1970's, might not vote for Trump even if Trump wins GA: https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rebeccaballhaus: June: $27M raised online/$25 million in large-$ fundraisers July: $64M raised online/$16M in large-$ fundraisers https… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mateagold: NEW: Trump and the RNC jointly collect $82 million in July, while Clinton and the DNC pull in $90 million https://t.co/I3YLw… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: This is amazing service journalism from @THR https://t.co/rvNqyDAudT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Hadas_Gold: revealed: Donald Trump’s actual hand size https://t.co/wzPzc3rhmB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TomBevanRCP: Trump's secret plan to win the election. https://t.co/7N17tvooLb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rickhasen: I point you to my April Fool's post, https://t.co/wZt5bbtg9m https://t.co/B0YojDZGpi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sullivanamy: This is a good time to remember that a healthy democracy requires more than one functioning political party & one viable t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Note Trump focus on Romney's lead in the popular vote. Reps could lead in pop vote for days, weeks in a close race https://t.co/I0oNKpZjN3 — PolitiTweet.org