Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump has a lead among the likeliest voters in Florida--but he trails among everyone else. https://t.co/McVrEpRuPE https://t.co/L8BbsmU12h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@onoma071112 @nealcincinnati no, the goal of the poll is to find otu the answers to questions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@sonimfan can't really compare to exit polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An Elon poll has Ross+1 in North Carolina https://t.co/zhzFN35gli — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Flashbomb7 @sdsuaztec4 @kshuff92 no, rounded to whole numbers. i think ours would have been like 40.4 to 39.7 or something, or 40-40 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@sdsuaztec4 @kshuff92 (but only sort of; we would have reported a tie but clinton would be up .7) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@sdsuaztec4 @kshuff92 tie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're a real polling nerd, scroll down to the bottom and read methods/sample demog. https://t.co/McVrEpRuPE https://t.co/AFgKzwk7fq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @blfraga @UpshotNYT i would not be surprised if the RV population is >15.5% hispanic now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @blfraga @UpshotNYT it's a 50/50 split, you can probably imagine backstory. modeled black elect = 13; lv is 12. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @rkbarney @mattmfm we did more callbacks in the actual survey and wound up a bit more diverse/dem/young than the test — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @rkbarney @mattmfm @UpshotNYT there was a june/july test — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@grilodan it would only be reflected if it leads to voters tell us they're likelier to vote (which is true in basically all public polling) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kshuff92 split 50/50. So if you say you're likely to vote and you have 20% chance of voting in our model, then we give you a 60% chance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @UpshotNYT the pretty map is mrp; gives same topline results though with subtly different subgroup estimates; will write it up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @UpshotNYT y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tehzachatak no; a perfect poll would have all weights as 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida https://t.co/jZtEUEDOuo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @MasabuAida @nataliemjb @BrendanNyhan oh, yeah--no you already know that's in there. '15 is too, but prettier — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @MasabuAida @nataliemjb @BrendanNyhan i wasn't around back then, so i wouldn't know — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @MasabuAida @nataliemjb @BrendanNyhan he did it twice? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@batterystaple96 no guarantee there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MasabuAida @nataliemjb @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan our post tomorrow will include something fairly reminiscent of your '15 paper — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No https://t.co/IQleHATtzT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemjb @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan i'm not aware of anyone that's done it; importance is subjective, but cut weighting 60% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DCCyclone @BrendanNyhan @nataliemjb live, 58% cell, eng/spanish — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @nataliemjb @jon_m_rob selzer, field, massinc, surveyusa, monmouth for starters all have done some rbs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @nataliemjb @jon_m_rob i think the main difference is response rate adjusted sample and turnout modeling; rbs is out there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I feel like the total failure of comment sections foreshadowed 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MarcACaputo @nickgourevitch @chucktodd @PeterHamby no, see lv section of that post; mix of self-report and vote history model — PolitiTweet.org