Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, reg voters are steadily getting more diverse. Trump surge would have to come from already reg. whites https://t.co/poXTYBwKa5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan :( — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Coltraning if you scroll down to LV section, note that the turnout model has clinton doing better than our LV screen. So model > poll for C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Suffolk has Trump+1 in Florida, 45 to 44 percent. Rubio+9, 43 to 34 percent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wow, that's a big step for me. I've used this map since I joined twitter in Feb. 2012. https://t.co/atZrxj6NBZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Among voters who voted in the 2014 midterms: Almost certain to vote: Trump vtrs 81 Clinton 73 Very/almost or 9/10 Trump 98 Clinton 93 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro not that i've come up with — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For instance, among voters who voted in the *2014 midterms*: Almost certain Black 63 White 81 Very/almost or 9/10 White 96 Black 90 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the reasons why I think the model may be more accurate: the gap was driven by the most likely voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrisfishsea @xenocryptsite that is a factor; we do have clinton underperforming in buncombe, for instance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybmerrill working class white reg dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MLBStatoftheDay: King Felix owns a 2.65 career ERA in 96 no-decisions – the lowest of any of the 245 pitchers with 75+ career no-decisi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have Clinton ahead in Cary by a fairly ludicrous 51 to 27 percent margin. It was close in '12. https://t.co/yQJEJa2gS4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @NYTForecasts @UpshotNYT nope — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Starting to think this election may not be a referendum on Simpson-Bowles https://t.co/HC9geuPBcD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think people have fully adjusted to what's happened in the NC Senate race. September polls: 3 leads for Ross, 3 for Burr, 1 tie. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@danbock10 @EdAsante77 he's outperforming him among white voters in the countryside — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@joshmccrain this is 2-way race ( Clinton+2 in the poll) and it's modeled turnout (which is C+4), not LV screen. More C than poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The two biggest swings in our model: Wake County, Clinton 53, Trump 29. Obama won 55-44. Mecklenburg: Clinton 58, Trump 27. Obama won 61-38. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile we'll get to look at it after the election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PCalith it's more recent; this is through aug 15 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have Clinton competitive among white voters in Mecklenberg/Wake County. Romney probably won whites there by 20… https://t.co/2onHoeJfYr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The split in North Carolina by education and migration was hugeee in our survey https://t.co/4Ty3mI1Kdn https://t.co/Z731kzZqlf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Likely voter screens make a big difference in our NC poll. https://t.co/4Ty3mIjl4V https://t.co/kvJtEgeplP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JZTessler individuals with lat /long — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Upshot/Siena poll is better for Dems down ballot than some recent NC polls. We have Ross+4 and Cooper+8 https://t.co/ultORK5zH3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton and Trump tied in the first NYT/Siena poll of NC, 41-41 https://t.co/ultORK5zH3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten polling Descartes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricHuebner1 i mean, it probably hurts their model more than it hurts me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsReid and yet that's the most straightforward interpretation of the last 2 months of polls — PolitiTweet.org