Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Adorably_Nerdy @armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig including dk it's 73.2w, 11.7b, 7.8h, 4.8o, 2.4dk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Adorably_Nerdy @armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig CPS was 74w, 13b, 8h; eixits 72w, 13b, 10h, polls (excluding dk) were 75w, 12b, 8h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig pre-election polls would have been right with a CPS electorate (more black voters) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Which of these states is likeliest to go to Clinton? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig well, at the least, preelection polls would have shown obama+huge if they had exit electorates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig high-quality polls (LV) v. ABC post O+2 v. C+2 39-54 v. 37-53 among whites 73-20 v. 69-19 among nonwhites — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos @joshtpm @RonWenig i don't think i agree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Which of these states is likeliest to go to Trump? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Are they going to have to stand in front of that white background? Looks terrible https://t.co/Ei846EgOoO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Dems will have a 'demographic firewall' if and/or when Florida or N.C. becomes a 'lean D' state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This tweet is supposed to make Dems feel good. In fact, it should do the opposite: no demographic firewall. https://t.co/3HNm23gQwR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: Must say again how much I like this graphic. Field period is ignored by all others, including me. And I like the color c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @williamjordann: The latest 2-way polls by fieldwork dates, with new WaPo-ABC. Not a whole lot appears to have changed over the past th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @baseball_ref: Best FIP in Live-Ball era by starting pitchers (min. 400 IP) Jose Fernandez - 2.43 Clayton Kershaw - 2.54 Sandy Koufax -… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last ABC/Post poll had Clinton+10 among RVs with a 5 pt LV penalty. New ABC/Post has a tie among RVs, with Clinton gaining 2 from LVs. K. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @morningmoneyben @pegobry @BuzzFeedAndrew i still think i'm something. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @morningmoneyben @pegobry @BuzzFeedAndrew not following. why does it hurt him? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @morningmoneyben @pegobry @BuzzFeedAndrew i don't get it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This seems like the easiest way to make Clinton seem sympathetic. https://t.co/iJg8cb0z1D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 i think that at least 2, perhaps all 3 of those polls don't meet huffpo standards// cc @nataliemjb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@szorowitz @NateSilver538 ah okay, suppose that makes more sense. still, not sure those polls will be in huffpost api--same pt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@UnkyWarthog @NateSilver538 possible i've misinterpreted; could be the georgia polls too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 maybe it's something else. i'm just saying that the issues are all related — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 take lat/usc shift this morning. looks like it cost clinton 1.4% chance of victory. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 and these interact: less sensitive model + fewer polls = even less sensitive model — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 true, though i'd guess that google poll alone is worth a 1/10th of a pt of margin on your natl poll estimate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

May as well be about the election models https://t.co/MmFzkVp9bm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DavMicRot google is the most heavily weighted poll in there right now, bc sample size — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Same pollster, OTOH, has Clinton+8 in NH-01, where Obama won by 2. https://t.co/WBzXbUCtr1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dem poll has Trump+4 in ME-2 https://t.co/Lqw8e6sKHM — PolitiTweet.org