Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins not sure if that's for compositional reasons or modeling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins we think she's up 61-37 iirc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting data is validating our sampling of low turnout voters. EV = 12% of active NC vtrs and 12% of respondents. Most polls too high — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have 189 respondents from our two NC polls who have already voted early, per state data. Clinton leads among them 57-36. Johnson 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Marcos_El_Malo @owillis @nytimes yes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@paddya91 @jon_m_rob clinton's favor; shifts from 6 to 7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@jon_m_rob ti's not. but there is a 1 pt difference between treating early voters as '1s' and their pre-early voting turnout score — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@_IamAdrienne that's not credible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth recalling CNN had Clinton+7 among RVs, but +1 among likely voters in NC https://t.co/MbHntUaCSN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An easy to overlook reason for huge Clinton lead: Trump with virtually no support among nonwhite voters. Clinton ahead 81-6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Likely electorate in the poll: 70.4 white non-Hispanic white (by reg on voter file), 21.6 nh black. 55.45 female (by reg.), 43.6 Male — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The funny thing is: I would have been happier if the poll was closer to the average #herdinginstinct https://t.co/PddCLGcG5K — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A key Trump weakness: he has just 80% of Republicans v. Burr at 92%. There's room for some 'natural' tightening https://t.co/ofrxZAUP8v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're curious about our sample--like I was--I've added a *ton* of detail to the bottom. https://t.co/ofrxZAUP8v https://t.co/RLMNpqsbaN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton made slight gains across the board: no more LV/RV gap; up a tick with white col/white no col; unanimous support from nonwhite voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton has a 61-36 point among early voters, according to our estimates https://t.co/ofrxZAUP8v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ross has a nominal 1 point lead--by the margin of rounding--in the Senate. Cooper still ahead by 6. https://t.co/ofrxZAUP8v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton leads by 7 points, 46-39 percent, in the final Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina https://t.co/hIKoOUlwsH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@rsherrard7 @ForecasterEnten @NateSilver538 @jodyavirgan no, he's still white — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @daveweigel: At a GOTV session for Trump in Provo. So far it's entirely a pep talk about how to ignore haters and talk down McMullin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JayCostTWS: Lol https://t.co/mDBrtPz71P — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Rigged https://t.co/AEGP8Slt67 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike CNN state polls from a few weeks ago (where Clinton was doing far worse with LVs than RVs), CNN natl poll shows C+4 w RV v. C+5 LV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mitchellvii: I'm not the one who made costumes 100% accurate since 1980. https://t.co/0jmmh8CsBl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wccubbison yes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KSoltisAnderson: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! https://t.co/sMwmgEWRO9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wccubbison of NC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina, our last in the state, will be released tomorrow morning — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kwcollins: .@YouGovUS's weighting by 2012 vote choice reported at time is SO much better than USC/LAT's weighting by 2012 vote choice r… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth has a strong poll for Republicans in NC: Clinton+1, Burr+6, McCroy+1 https://t.co/OZdbxYezXs — PolitiTweet.org