Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's amazing how few high-quality polls there are right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BrendanNyhan: This will never end https://t.co/YKY2nj4DUX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jryangolden @DavMicRot i think there's plenty of evidence that the race has tightened since our poll, and it was the most D one at time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Hillary playing some prevent defense: going to Detroit on Friday, first time to MI in weeks. Why? Need to rally Af-Am voter… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@williamjordann @jbarro we must have very different views of that table, since you have to weight nonvoters too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro well yougov has relatively artful ways of doing it, since they have old respondent data. for most public pollsters it has huge risks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@jbarro i haven't read it, but i'm sympathetic to view that polls shift without actual changes in underlying race https://t.co/j2pWEbQYUJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytgraphics: In today's print NYT: the most detailed election map we've ever printed: 30,000+ zip codes across a 4-page spread. https:/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @tbonier: 4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit well, if trump is up 7 then he would also be in striking distance with early voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit their — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit what are there early vote numbers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jshkatz: Clinton win chances over the past three months, forecast by forecast https://t.co/Vnv2cKLTEv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: The most anticipated poll release since the last poll I waited for https://t.co/rdtz6wyKGS But seriously, it's a big o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SoccerPharaoh it's based on an old poll; it will not change because of anything but early voting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SoccerPharaoh @ClintoniteInMex you're not using it appropriately. read the piece. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ClintoniteInMex it's not 'doubling down.' we're just rolling the same method forward. it explicitly doesn't account for changes in polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interesting https://t.co/rB6IDHTWFJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

People who think maps should just be a bar chart of 51 blue and 47 red? https://t.co/P2lvQxi0hi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Mikel_Jollett @Redistrict even without that: simply because young voters will dramatically increase their turnout and they're most diverse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@Redistrict AA share could stay flat, but white share of electorate will fall much lower than 14 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@sonimfan yup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Black, non-Hispanic share of actual and registered voters in North Carolina since 2004 cc: @Redistrict https://t.co/0HXyGMrGdb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@bolluxs 19, and that was when they were a much smaller share of registered voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sorry, but it's just not realistic to suggest that black voters could fall to 19% of the NC electorate. https://t.co/77MSOF4x6I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@armandodkos @Adorably_Nerdy that's the reason why we're not doing it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An NC polling error is much likelier to come from undecided voters, 'tightening' Johnson, or sampling error than the turnout or LV/RV issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically: NC electorate will be what polls suggest. Polls say Clinton is ahead. Polls can be wrong. But, if so, won't be bc of turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The big takeaway is that the early vote isn't changing our estimates for the composition of the electorate at all, to either cand. advantage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too https://t.co/wOJyXKqrqZ — PolitiTweet.org