Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Breaking News: Two of the men found guilty of the assassination of Malcolm X are expected to have their convictions thrown out… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, let's put it this way: I haven't seen a single person who seriously and honestly argues that Georgia's voting law would cost Democrats a House seat or discernibly affect their statewide chances https://t.co/cZKXFUYpky — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, Cobb has almost exactly the right number of people for a congressional district--as do many of the Atlanta area counties that get sliced and diced up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Compared to the last map, GA-6 turning red again is the noteworthy shift. But compared to a nonpartisan map, it's the treatment of Democratic-leaning Cobb County--here split among four CDs--that stands out as the most dubious choice https://t.co/A3JPbtcocs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim as it is, you're simply telling a different story here and the problem isn't just the frame. it's that there's two rounds of *successful* recontacts in this description, and i don't find that credible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim that said, if you actually got him to rewrite the methodology to something plausible--or better still, if you published a proper and full description--i would consider either to be sufficient to close the case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim i'm actually quite interested in it, because if i don't think your current description can be easily reconciled with it then i'm not sure whether i ought to delete the initial tweet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim the paragraph, as written, says that the incentive goes to the subgroup of the 30k who gets recontacted (which would be a third successful attempt, if the 30k were prior contacts), so you need a bigger edit than that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim that's facially inconsistent with your new description, unless you have an unnecessary double recontact — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim i'm not misunderstanding what you're saying, so maybe you're misreading/misrepremebing the paragraph: --30k called --most nonrespond; subgroup fit criteria --*that* subgroup gets recontacted and offered incentive https://t.co/usdrUTLqVa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot @ryangrim i'm just saying that the description is inconsistent with what you've told me--since it posits that the 30k is the frame, and then a subgroup of that 30k was recontacted (rather than 30k being recontacts)--and i don't really care whose fault it is — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot and i would point out, of course, that it would make zero sense for you to have a double recontact in this design, as this paragraph+your clarification seems to imply — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot and indeed, the paragraph says that you *then* recontacted a subgroup of those respondents (as opposed to those respondents being recontacts) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot the issue isn't whether they're randomly drawn. the issue is whether they're presumably recontacts. i think it is extremely reasonable to presume that 'called 30k, most didn't respond' as 30k attempts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot though the issue isn't simply the need for additional information: it's that you're saying something different than what you told the reporter/how the reporter interpreted you — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dannybarefoot and *all* of it could be sorted out by... publishing a full, transparent methodology, as is the standard, and as i've seen many people implore you to do — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some reason to be a little skeptical of a widely-cited focus group. The methodological details (last tweet of this thread) aren't really plausible under reasonable assumptions https://t.co/D4OhkJqora — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@D_J_Winkler @conorsen @garfington now i understand this case to be a stronger one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen @garfington this is like blaming the flu for the death of an 90 year old immunocompromised patient — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen @garfington there's no way to know, but i will say that any campaign which can be killed by a poll was one that was going to die. and i think that would say a lot more about the candidate than her supporters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen @garfington lol do you actually believe this — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Redistricting update: our latest @CookPolitical estimate is a GOP net gain of ~2.5 seats from redistricting alone, w/ still… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker is such a great product this cycle https://t.co/sGIQsSLn56 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@reidepstein what are the net-five districts that republicans have flipped in this analysis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker is such a great product this cycle https://t.co/a2HyaRFEA0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DLeonhardt: Covid now presents the sort of risk to most vaccinated people that we unthinkingly accept in other parts of life. And Covid… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bcburden @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray And while turnout is a factor (mentioned in piece btw), it is obviously not a complete explanation! (and the mechanism behind differential turnout could plausibly be connected to policy mood, anyway) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bcburden @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray I can’t tell if you all are joking here — isn’t exactly a new connection — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid many do — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray i do think it lists it as one of several factors that seem culminate in the midterm penalty, though it is not exactly clear to me how they all fit together — PolitiTweet.org