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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@HotlineJosh @stevandrews yeah, that's the tweet i'm quoting. i added the thought about our poll — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
:( https://t.co/aQg4LUduLz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ForecasterEnten looks like they really cucked it up https://t.co/yFXFUy6Du8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Ah, I remember when people used to say that Clinton couldn't do worse among white working class voters than Obama https://t.co/QK6wV4U5kw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@nickgourevitch fair — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@nickgourevitch there haven't been many polls supporting a 5 pt clinton lead in a while — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Trump's challenge: figure out how to crack Clinton's advantage in these states https://t.co/uwl5HQ5gEx https://t.co/W8uXaYa3VB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ridleypots iirc, our polls averaged out to 61-27. i think that's about right — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
IE: I'd be more tolerant of polls showing C+15 among Hispanics if there were polls showing Clinton+85 with Hispanic voters (if truth is 50) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I usually say ignore tabs, but I think it's getting clear that it's not 'noisy' Latino vote tabs, it's bias https://t.co/DvWavG3Gtw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
There's a case. Early voting numbers have trended Clinton's way and she's still spending time there https://t.co/0LvyV4JTFN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Alternately: they can't really come up with too many other ways they can lose, given CO/NV/PA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Team Clinton clearly thinks they're pretty soft in Michigan https://t.co/7DhI4lAdR9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SignAria not guaranteed, but turnout generally trends white/old/high turnout to nonwhite/young/low turnout. has been happening so far — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SignAria it'll keep getting more diverse — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Our final FL poll was 67.4 white, 12.7 black, 14 Hisp. (would have been lower if there hadn't been that hurricane, slowed final reg data) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Florida electorate poised to be more diverse than our poll, or most of our September panelists https://t.co/qfOdO8ZPcO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ToryAnarchist: Does Trump have a secret weapon? Well, it's not to secret, but this article gets at it: https://t.co/LTCT62wmKK — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Unaffiliated NC early voters live in a census tract that's 34.4% college educated Unaf. NC voters who have not voted live in 30.5% BA+ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Clinton will probably expand, though. Right now does she have anything planned on eday other than Philly? https://t.co/9t4cMZNJoB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@nickgourevitch they do, i believe — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Our turnout estimate in North Carolina is now 4.64 million votes, up from 4.5 million in 2012. It'll probably grow even more today. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I think this is mainly because the Michigan pollsters are terrible (see primary), not because it's hard to poll https://t.co/dK9eGV0Tdp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
To win, Trump will have to carry one of NV, PA, MI, WI, CO--even if he won all of OH/IA/FL/AZ/NC/NH. It's still tough for him. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@tripgabriel yes, our poll--including the one that showed trump ahead. but as importantly, it's demograhpics: younger/newly reg vtrs = NPA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@tripgabriel @GlennThrush dems lead NPAs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
So far, 63% of the people with a >98% chance of voting have turned out. Our model doesn't seem like it has a great… https://t.co/yfL3HRHybG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters https://t.co/OtuJhYE1Mj — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Between 2008 and 2012, the turnout among white voters dropped a lot--but mainly among younger and Dem. whites https://t.co/tWLlVxCrfU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
No clear strategy here. Clinton more clearly focused on areas with a large election day vote or black pop https://t.co/jPLx8k4d7G — PolitiTweet.org
