Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Big picture: the EC/PV gap is more about Trump strength in the Midwest than Clinton strength in California — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Difference is Trump got a lot of E.V. for gains in the Midwest/Northeast. Clinton got no Electoral Votes for her gains in Sun Belt/Utah — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The E.C.-popular vote split isn't really about California, Trump won Appalachafornia just as much--AL/MS/LA/AR/OK/T… https://t.co/fDGMiUC9Oy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take a close look: the avatar is now updated for 2016 results. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"If you take away 1/8th of the country, you get a different result!" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton's popular vote lead grows -- @KevinQ w @Redistrict data https://t.co/xxTOLtmmGm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JustinWolfers are you actually in fairwood? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers idk. i doubt marte ever has a season like segura '16, though idk if it's sustainable. haven't followed him since trade from LA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers seems like a vote of no-confidence in walker — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Family member asserts Trump rigged it bc he alleged rigging beforehand, and Trump has a projection issue. As credible evidence as any lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The result was that Clinton's raw vote margin in non-black Philadelphia wards was basically identical to Obama — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It should also be noted, though, that the increase in turnout in non-black areas wasn't correlated with Trump strength *or* GOP gains — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty clear turnout story in Philadelphia https://t.co/gAD3mNDXDU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan https://t.co/YJodVfr7by — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My 'interactions' right now: --you're covering up fraud in WI/PA/MI --you're covering up 3 million illegal D votes --CA shouldn't count :( — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Clinton now leads the popular vote by more than 2 million, according to @Redistrict count https://t.co/u1YcHm4YOy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@amedun and the salient pattern is 'this paper ballot thing matters a lot less than race and education' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@amedun numbers are numbers; doesn't matter whether i called a number black or white. it sees the same pattern — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hspter i blame the wine, not the heat of the take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I named a variable wrong, which has no substantive effect on the 'paper ballot' coefficient but flips colplus/black… https://t.co/6kiJMeehEi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@keithegiles i do — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan agree it's not surprising. but i don't think this is the way they would have wanted it to come out, if they wanted it at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@GerryDales speaking personally: this would be horrifying — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@amedun @GerryDales yeah, but it's not like there aren't mediums (medium, for one) for publishing non-peer reviewed analysis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@GerryDales they're academics. i think they would have published an actual analysis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@TheWoodenslurpy sure they do https://t.co/tbZ0KkBanI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I feel bad for Halderman et al. right now, who probably didn't intend for this to be public — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm just saying that there's nothing about Trump winning WI that's odd, given how well he did in IA/MN--where there's a paper ballot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Exit polls are too young, too educated. That's why they keep overestimating Democrats, Bernie https://t.co/YrLiD2fvxw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We can run a regression on it, but in the end, it's this simple https://t.co/UO1ZM2qgyt — PolitiTweet.org