Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's also possible that the new moral righteousness of the left has significantly raised the personal costs for liberals who argue against the left, especially in public. Probably not a coincidence that Eric Adams is the only one who's done it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are lots of possible explanations for the weakness of the mainstream liberal center in this era. Maybe the most fundamental: the failure of Obama to produce satisfactory political/economic results — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One manifestation of it--obvious on this website, but it occurred throughout the Democratic primary--is that liberals tend to argue against the left on electability grounds, rather than clearly disagree on the substance of the issues -- even when I think they actually do disagree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One manifestation of it--obvious on this website, but throughout the Democratic primary--is that liberals constantly argue against the left on electability grounds, as if they agree with the left on the substance of the issue as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Part of the reason Democrats get tarred with something like defund the police last summer, for instance, is that the party's very large mainstream is often conspicuously quiet--and that's especially true in the Biden era — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that's missing from the discussion of the squeeze: the weakness of the very large, mainstream liberal center of the Democratic Party https://t.co/eCNzxSLeF5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan you can always 'just look at the vote share,' but the thing you'd be doing with that information is... judging whether the seats that will decide control (median) are about as competitive as the state (mean), and i don't see what's controversial about that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan strictly speaking you don't *ever* "need" a measure. the point is that, of the measures, the mean-median gap is the one that approximates majoritarianism, and i honestly don't see how there's any room to disagree with that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan and given that you want an easily enforced legislation with a clear standard, a mean-median based standard would pretty clearly be the way to go here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan of all the measures, it's the one that approximates it most clearly. you can obviously undertake a more rigorous analysis, but of all the various proposed measures it's the relevant one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @jbouie yes, since it's a basis for limiting gerrymandering of state legislative maps (as opposed to the elections clause, which allows for more expansive regulations of federal elections) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @jbouie this is an entirely different issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But on the simplicity point, I do like that this narrower effort to constrain the worst gerrymandering does point itself to a single quantifiable test (mean-median) as opposed to the usual debates about 'what's the best measure' or what criteria to value etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do wonder whether this is part of a broader pattern I've observed in this whole HR1/FPA thing: the tendency for reformers to focus so much on trying to improve the system that they've sometimes overlooked ensuring that the fundamentals are safeguarded — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously there are all kinds of challenges here, including the courts, as there always are. But I do think it's interesting that they didn't take a shot at it, given how often the republican gvt clause option gets talked about (including by roberts, kennedy etc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Texas GOP want to draw *every* district to be Trump+6 with ridiculous lines, it would be entirely consistent with majority rule (not consistent with VRA, but that's a separate question). But a map that's 50% Trump+15 would be a deliberate effort to allow for minority rule — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Only one metric would logically follow from a republican government clause attack: the mean-median gap. A lot of the usual anti-gerrymandering would be irrelevant in this framework, like commissions, efficiency gap, compactness, communities of interest, proportionality, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A guarantee-clause based attack might be very different than what you usually hear about on this website. It would narrowly establish that republican gvt = majority rule = can't draw maps that would thwart majority rule — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm late to this @jbouie piece, but I do think it's worth coming back to a week later to reiterate how odd it is that HR1/FPA, for all their gangly ambition, don't include a republican government-based attack on state legislative gerrymandering https://t.co/9qG3a7i9sE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: Some friends pinged me to let me know an old tweet was floating around about gun violence in Chicago, and maybe gaining ste… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: For those arriving due to a renewed interest in this tweet, it's a part of a defense of Black History Month against the old… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And a note to the poll unskewers: the sample was R+2 and Trump+6 on recalled 2016 vote. It was still Biden+5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yet 52% also thought Trump encouraged violence in America to 42% who thought he discouraged it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On defund, voters opposed it by a huge margin (19% said defund, 40% maintain, 36% increase) And voters thought Biden supported defund, 45-38 (including 22% of Dems and 38% of nonwhite voters) They also thought Biden hasn't done enough to condemn rioting, 31% enough 56% not enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

BLM fav/unfav: 53-42 Who handles protests best? Biden+8 Who handles race relations best? Biden+19 Who handles crime best? Even Who handles law and order best? Even What's more important: covid or law and order? COVID +1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We did a poll of Wisconsin just after the unrest in Kenosha. Biden led by 5, 48-43 It had some pretty interesting findings on the issue was playing out in the race, with a mixed bag for both sides https://t.co/5OqH3LLuiZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Wow. Election Twitter's own @SeanTrende and Bernard Grofman, a UC-Irvine professor who has previously served as a court-app… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zackbeauchamp @BrendanNyhan @cwarshaw i think if that's true, that's yet another reason to not think of this in terms of polarization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zackbeauchamp @BrendanNyhan @cwarshaw again, i honestly do not think it makes sense analytically, unless you've defined your center at the pole. you've defined yourself out of seeing any movement by democrats *toward* greater support for democracy, including being willing to bust norms to do it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zackbeauchamp @BrendanNyhan @cwarshaw but if you're committed to the polarization framework for this question--and you shouldn't be--i think the 'center' is quite clear, since the two parties more or less agreed 25 years ago on the rules/norms/structure of american government, and neither side likes it anymore — PolitiTweet.org