Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BrendanNyhan: Such a claim depends on really weird counterfactual where media doesn't cover news such as Afghanistan, delta, and inflat… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, I think the case that public perceptions of the economy are being driven more by weird coverage than weird conditions would be a lot better if... conditions weren't obviously so weird. The key will be whether 'normal' conditions ultimately yield normal numbers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Public opinion can also move fairly slowly. It's possible that, today, the economy is clearly back on track but the bad news from August-October continues to exert a big effect on the numbers. It will for a while. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I'm very agnostic about whether voters are 'wrong' about the economy today--whether their perceptions of the economy are very different than what we ought to expect given the facts. I just don't know. This is obviously a highly unusual moment, coming out of COVID etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I'm very agnostic about whether voters, today, are 'wrong' about the economy today--whether their perceptions of the economy are very different than what we ought to expect given the facts. I just don't know. This is obviously a highly unusual moment, coming out of COVID etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while some people get raises that keep up with inflation or change jobs, many people do not. Inflation almost invariably creates losers v. low inflation, even if real per capita income keeps up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Inflation is also a real issue, even if it's transitory. A household with 40k annual expenditures loses 2k in real dollars due to 5% inflation. There goes the stimulus check that you think should drive Biden's approval ratings up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"Business can't hire" is a real and very visible economic problem. So is the supply chain issue. I see no reason why it couldn't/shouldn't affect economic perceptions. But it's not one that's worked into the usual statistics; it's not an issue we know how to think about — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another possibility is that this is a case where voter attitudes are catching *real* things that the numbers don't capture so easily, like supply chain issues, delays and worker shortages — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it's worth noting that we had several months where the economic numbers undershot reality and required a significant upward correction. It's possible the perception-reality gap is based in biased coverage, but that bias stems from biased data not biased journalism — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it's worth noting that we had several months where the economic numbers undershot reality and required a significant upward correction. It's possible the perception-reality has its basis in biased coverage, but stemming from biased data not biased journalism — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But from 08-20, I do think public perceptions of the economy were fairly credibly tied to economic reality. It would be a step further if voters now reached a fairly erroneous conclusion about the economy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the case that the connection has been frayed is at least plausible. Most economic indicators support the perception of a fairly strong economy. And it's not the first time we've seen something odd in this area: approval ratings were less responsive to the economy from 08-20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

#1, otoh, is an important hypothesis. The role of the economy in politics is a really central finding in political science. If the media environment and/or polarization has severed the connection between economic reality and public perception, that's really important — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most people just don't think about policy like you all do, and I have no reason to expect the median voter to swing on a policy initiative if they think the economy is bad. There's a reason why 'I have a plan for that' Warren was basically DOA beyond liberal college grads. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From the standpoint of a political analyst, I think argument 1 is a lot more interesting and important than 2. That's mainly because I think a core assumption of 2--that people mainly vote on views of the details of policy--is basically wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think some of these arguments are more plausible than others. And even some of the plausible ones are beyond anyone's ability to prove or disprove (how much of Biden's problem in Afghanistan is media v. a chaotic reality? I have no idea how to know) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(I'll stuff Afghanistan-related commentary under #2 as well, since it was a popular policy goal that became unpopular, purportedly due to unfair media coverage) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Biden's policies are popular, voters do/should judge policies based on policy, and therefore Biden's inability to claim credit for his popular policies reflects a media failure to give sufficient attention to the substance of his agenda — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As best I can tell, this is founded on two basic arguments: 1) Many economic indicators (growth, unemployment) are good, inflation isn't especially bad, therefore perceptions of a bad economy must be driven by poor reporting and an unfair narrative — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A really staggering share of the replies (*on twitter*, though conspicuously not on any other channel) essentially just assert that the media is singularly responsible for Biden's low approval rating https://t.co/oNS64O1lRR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @CharlieVergos: @Nate_Cohn When I worked as a tour guide, I always got WAY more tips when I gave a mediocre tour in great weather than i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the number of people who suppose the Great Society helped Democrats electorally is also surprising. They lost 47 seats in 1966 and went on to lose 5 of the next 6 presidential elections. Not saying it's 100% causal, but this is not exactly a favorable precedent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From some of these replies, you'd think Roosevelt would have done just as well if he had passed a child daycare subsidies and universal pre-K in his first 100 days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting themes in the replies is how many people see the New Deal as a precedent for a popular progressive agenda, as opposed to a president who was going to exceptional lengths, by the standards of the time, to restore the economy https://t.co/tv4O1IwW5e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now look, I don't think that BBB is going to hurt Biden like Obamacare hurt Obama or something. For all the talk about thermostatic backlash, most of his agenda is still popular. I just don't see why we'd expect it to help, given what voters say they're concerned about — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The New Deal was was overwhelmingly focused on addressing an immediate economic crisis--you know, relief/reform/recovery. It's fits the 'economy key' framework. Democrats got pummeled after the Great Society https://t.co/NVhAiO6zu0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These people may tell pollsters they support a policy. But they're not exactly demanding it or even care. Trying to win over a swing voter on a policy issue, when they're dissatisfied by the economy, is like trying to sell someone something they're not asking for. It's hard! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yet that's how the electorate behaves as a whole. A crucial segment of voters just isn't sufficiently demanding of an ideological policy agenda for an ambitious legislation to do a president much good, and those same voters respond to the economy/natl environment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yet that's how the electorate behaves as a whole. A crucial segment of voters just isn't sufficiently demanding of an ideological policy objectives for an ambitious legislative agenda to do a president much good, and those same voters respond to the economy/natl environment — PolitiTweet.org