Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @electionsmith yeah, i don't think there's necessarily tension here. we have clinton winning among RVs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Nunes stuff is inexplicable to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @williamjordann: Coal production versus employment. https://t.co/c3LbBZsrnJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democratic turnout in 2014 turnout was terrible--worse than some people think. https://t.co/du1rvxeZPw https://t.co/ykqwd1XExj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I just don't see evidence for this. The drop in black turnout is pretty uniform nationwide. https://t.co/ctDPqCkSNE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier many potentially strategic details omitted (young black men, hispanic republicans, high income gop, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier in terms of the core question of the piece--whether turnout was decisive, or persuasion--it is not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier obviously you can always break it down further but i don't agree that they're especially meaningful — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ralphnf1 not in the key battlegrounds, but yes in the NPV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier we have similar trends by census tract income/education, which i assume is the driver of your model — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JustReadNtweets no we can be clearer about it--but the projections were based on the 2012 turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JustReadNtweets @otis_reid the predictions are basically 2012 turnout, but lower black turnout. 2012 turnout was pretty normal, as was 2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @seeglazek: Voter file confirms, but county-level data made this conclusion all but certain. Crazy-making that so many Dems still resist… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier 2) low educ white Ds who stayed home didn't support clinton by much. they might have been tied or even supported trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier 1) i don't think you get to 'keep the good turnout and get rid of the bad'; — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid idk, blaming turnout if black turnout isn't higher than white turnout seems dumb to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid my guess is that a '2012 turnout' on the 2016 RV universe would have barely gotten her over, but i haven't tried it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@otis_reid i can tell you off hand that clinton still loses or even does worse with 2012 voters, but that doesn't include any newly reg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hey_itsthatguy @ThePlumLineGS because she persuaded big numbers of college educated whites, hispanic turnout up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS i mean, clinton would have won easily with the kerry/gore vote among white working class, and obama '12 was better — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It wasn't the turnout. It was millions of white working class voters who broke from Obama to Trump https://t.co/du1rvxeZPw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricHeggie @jon_m_rob @davidshor for what it's worth, i have some questions about population changes in places like detroit and flint... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricHeggie @davidshor @jon_m_rob stay homes are always dem as far as I can tell — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @EricHeggie @jon_m_rob I'm confused — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @blfraga in our polling the "unknown" PA vote reported basically the same race as the overall RV pool — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KyleTrygstad: Big endorsement from @sendavidperdue in #GA06 https://t.co/Qv3VEknXhp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it's february 2017 (or jan, i forget) https://t.co/XoTb7Mz0V3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidcrockett08 @ElectProject @nuccbko both 2016 presidential primary and 2016 state primary have occurred since — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKElections @ElectProject including absentees, primary breakdown is D 55, R 31 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKElections @ElectProject his includes absentees, mine is in-person — PolitiTweet.org