Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@IChotiner as in he can't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@IChotiner I'd guess not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IMO, 35 is about the spot where he's down to his core fans. His Gallup favorability rating was usually in this rang… https://t.co/Ot2yAbUD8f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump down to 35-59, per Gallup. Oof https://t.co/WmDqNYJvEF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser @Alex_Roarty @EsotericCD over the last 14 years, including '16 potus, that sort of reasoning just hasn't held up very well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser @Alex_Roarty @EsotericCD then it's a special, the R field, ossoff $$, d enthusiasm.... shades closer to 50 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser @Alex_Roarty @EsotericCD strictly by natl conditions and district (trump/price/romney), R at ~65-70% chance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser @Alex_Roarty @EsotericCD if i were one of the rating people, i'd call it a toss-up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser @Alex_Roarty @EsotericCD that's basically what we said. why is it a huge surprise if he won? it's a special! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nancycinsf we hedged them before, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten @EsotericCD @SadFndngFathers i think it's consistent with a hurricane, though one isn't necessary for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @SadFndngFathers at the least it's a consistent one. if i'm not surprised by it, i can't say it's an earthquake — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @SadFndngFathers it may be interpreted as one. but honestly at this point it shouldn't be a surprise (and IMO not an earthquake) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JCrock_ no, but certainly 15 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@adamdferguson @Bencjacobs no it wouldn't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Doesn't mean it's likely, and it doesn't necessarily mean much about D/GOP chances going forward. But it's in play — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this point, it won't be surprising if Ossoff gets the 50% necessary to win outright and avoid a run off in GA-6 https://t.co/morSqwhgZA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kevish12321 we were at 95-97% there for a long time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kevish12321 yeah--even while messing up the outstanding vote, we didn't get to 99.9% T until after PA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kevish12321 similar issue in VA https://t.co/wXoaaC3V4x — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kevish12321 before the election we coded those as states where the abs vote was counted before the AP said "100%" reporting. that wasn't so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kevish12321 you mean on election night? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 @Cmilairk @Axels15 yes, this is definitely a white dem phenom — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 @Cmilairk @Axels15 in a well-educated district like this they are and fwiw, the electorate is 7.5% black so far, v. 10.7 in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another big factor: if I were a Republican, I would have no idea who I was going to vote for yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@_annascanlon no, not really https://t.co/N3rtNuq6A2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BradMossEsq that would be a high turnout for a midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If, in the end, there are 250k votes, then this is probably just cannibalization. If, in the end, there are 70k votes, it's a big deal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's a special election, so there are very few people who are "sure" to vote. Won't really know until it's over https://t.co/xHScJT5AMT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32. Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast — PolitiTweet.org