Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously we'll see soon enough, but are we 100.0% convinced Manchin just killed BBB? His statement led with "cannot vote to continue," which sounds like whether to start debate on the current bill (which he was against). https://t.co/xi9nbXLzqg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann @leedrutman as an aside, i do think it is interesting that there was a bit of a journalism v. political science (at least on twitter) split on this. might be due to an advocacy v analysis type split? maybe a spot where sourcing was a real advantage? dk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann @leedrutman hr1 was doa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nprpolitics: Longtime Trump adviser and far-right political operative Roger Stone appeared before the House select committee investigat… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A connection worth being clear about: the thing making it hard to deal with omicron (the growing gap btwn individual v. collective threat, as described by yong) is the same reason why omicron nudges politics in anti-emergency direction, esp after this wave https://t.co/skDx7TW1gL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not wrong. HR1 wasn't designed to meet Trump-era threats to democracy. Manchin's efforts have at least made it a more plausible legislative vehicle, but a more fundamental reimagination probably would have been needed for it to protect democracy https://t.co/J2116SjqSW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Folks, fewer severe cases per case/positive test (which shapes individual perception of risk) has very significant political consequences, regardless of what it means for the population as a whole https://t.co/wbSThJY656 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether this adds up to a slight or a big shift in pandemic politics is a totally separate question. That will come down to exact severity, ofc. But it's clear which direction this will nudge the issue, even if it's not clear whether it's *the* turning point or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whether this adds up to a nudge toward normalcy or actual outright normalcy is a totally separate question. That will come down to exact severity, ofc. But it's clear which direction this the pandemic, even if it's not clear whether it's *the* turning point or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of people have talked about a 'return to normalcy' over the last few years. It's hard to think of what would do more to nudge COVID toward normalcy than a widespread sense that exposure/infection is at once inevitable, and not as scary as it once was — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There won't be a fantasy of crushing a highly transmissible variant with the ability to evade vaccines. And at the same time, the risks may seem more acceptable, due to diminished severity, growing immunity and improved treatment options — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, the short-term effect is a wave of cases, which may or may not increase in hospitalization/deaths (depending on how the lower severity x higher transmissibility equation sorts out). But even assuming there is a wave of hospitalizations/death, this will be a changed pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From a political standpoint, it seems increasingly likely that the main consequence of omicron will be to accelerate the end of the coronavirus crisis/state of emergency — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lewis_baston @RyanDEnos yup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yeselson @RyanDEnos democrats don't even need a king to create 500 new members of the upper house! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yeselson @RyanDEnos and as i said, i agree. the same ingredients would play out very differently here. but i do actually disagree about whether the democrats could play out the same absurdity with the senate as liberals did with the house of lords — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yeselson @RyanDEnos as i said below, i think our constitutional structure means that the story can play out in very different ways. (that said, yes if the democrats really want to they too can go through with the absurdity of creating 500 new liberal states in DC) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos and i think the positive interpretation, fwiw, involves treating civil war/disunion with ireland as a separate issue, which it was not at the time and would not be in the US (and again would be very different in our constitutional structure) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos unfortunately i can't make that assumption, but for what it's worth the country came through in no small part because it went through a war and had a far more flexible constitutional structure. who knows what the same ingredients might have yielded otherwise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos the death of a seemingly strong liberal party (despite many legislative accomplishments lol). the uk superficially still strong and at the peak of its power, yet being over taken by US/germany. oh yeah: right before ww1. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos cultural and labor unrest at the end of the gilded age; a huge crisis in constitutional governance (culminating in death of the house of lords); the irish question (which soon leads to sectarian violence and civil war); — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos UK 1910 deserves some consideration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Warner a little notable here, as he was not exactly happy with HR1, per CNN reporting at the time. FTVA perhaps showing a few more legs here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other side of the ledger, GOP makes some a few gains in VA-2 though it's still a Biden CD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my eye, that looks like a Biden+8 or so CD in Loudon to Albemarle, so that's not exactly a lock for them right now. But it's better for them than the status quo VA-7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An interesting and different map proposal from the court appointed special masters in Virginia The headline: Spanberger's seat gone, though Dems get a fourth Democratic-leaning CD in NoVA, stretching from Loudoun to near Charlottesville https://t.co/9w9K6jlyFk https://t.co/MeHivUkikI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: https://t.co/muUFhkZzzr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan (and i think it is easy to imagine how it could exacerbate them, depending on your theory of GOP behavior) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RedistrictNet: On Dec. 8, 2021, Chairman Grove announced a citizen map was selected as the preliminary congressional plan for #Pennsylv… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hurricanexyz31 @BrendanNyhan i think that's entirely at odds with how the GOP has evolved over the last two decades tbh, and obviously the GOP would be electorally viable under a majoritarian constitution — PolitiTweet.org