Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blankslate2017 yes; though this is an R+20 district by this measures where trump won by 1.5, so it's not crazy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last map. Here's the election day vote in Sedgwick (above is the early vote) https://t.co/MiUQOkexc0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten i think that's a good comparison in a number of respects — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's tonight's special v. the Brownback/Davis race, if anyone knows their Wichita geography enough to weigh-in https://t.co/yt4KDmLPvi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hot take: all considered, both parties played this KS-4 race pretty well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what's left in Sedgwick. They can really call it already, I promise https://t.co/qdKZ4v2wN3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@naveedamalfard no, we expect it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject my statement is fully consistent with that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kernals12 idk i stopped paying attention — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the first day where you could argue that there were more Trump voter, though, by our estimate, it was barely Clinton — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen same — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Bencjacobs: It's pretty remarkable that the circular firing squad in #KS04 tonight is being convened by the party that over performed b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Day 13 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is R 52, D 35--best GOP yet, and in-line with RV pool. Over all, D 46, R… https://t.co/1nF5RWaDaC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TimForgot yes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@add1sol this is where the votes are still to be counted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what's left now in Sedgwick. Given that it's eday vote, it's probably tied or even Estes edge. https://t.co/dvMJrr4h1q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now 101 precincts counted in Sedgwick, same story. We think that Sedgwick will keep flat-lining for Estes. Might even net a hundred more. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's where the election day vote hasn't been counted in Sedgwick. Pretty representative; plenty of central Wichit… https://t.co/RgTi53mckF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The precincts that have already reported in Sedgwick were D+31 in the early vote, so, on balance, remaining vote better for Estes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

66 eday precincts in, and Estes is net-25 pts better on eday than E.V. So Thompson won't net much/anything out of what's left in Sedgwick — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Estes running clearly ahead of what he needs in rural areas. Sedgwick County election day vote---so far, and it's early--looks good enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Sedgwick, turnout is at 60% of 2014 levels in completed precincts. Looks similar in the small completed rural counties — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen i would be really surprised if estes could make this double digits — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that would leave him just short. But if this holds up, this could be a really close race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In done precincts, ev is 39% of total vote in Sedgwick Estes running a net-27 pts better on eday. If true, would mean Thompson+8 in Sedgwick — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: @Nate_Cohn Here you go on the part that is in it https://t.co/0FAVdC4I4f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I just deleted my Pawnee tweet. This county is split between districts. Most of it not in KS-04 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The count is done in tiny tiny Pawnee County. Estes won 71%, about the same as Trump, much better than Brownback's 52%. Decent sigh for him — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Edwards County, where 9/16 precincts are counted, Thompson running *behind* Davis. Would be bad for Ds if it holds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what that plot looks like as a map https://t.co/kXFDx7ZUts — PolitiTweet.org