Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Day 15 in GA-6! R 51, D 32 Over all, D 42-R 41 with 46494 ballots cast. GOP poised to take edge tmro, though still… https://t.co/YsM9zLnLY2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DawgsOnTop44 those clinton figures assume considerable r crossover — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: Leftists should be a lot more excited about affluent voters trending toward left wing parties than they are https://t.co/MIp… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, that's basically true for all Democrats as well (most 'Ds' are high turnout, since they're by definition… https://t.co/GeEpahApY4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I just deleted a tweet that said >70% of D had voted in some places--meant 70% of high turnout Ds. Big enough omission to delete, IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bdylan234 high profile specials can get up to midterm turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democratic turnout is already near 70% of midterm levels in precincts near e.v. sites in north Fulton, Ga. https://t.co/S6eqdEXkJK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS There are so many reliable GOP voters left to vote, which will cancel out that trend to some extent… https://t.co/f4O6Gg5ilT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS Usually, less likely voters become steadily more likely to vote as an election approaches/election d… https://t.co/7y1VFrjcU2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far in the GA-6 early vote, voters who didn't vote in 2/3 elections are 19% of the electorate and estimated at Clinton+34 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In a midterm electorate, voters who didn't vote in 2/3 elections in GA-6 would be ~20% of the vote and Clinton+22 https://t.co/ZvhcW2qWxj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@benwaksman size = 2017 early vote. midterm model uses previous election turnout, date of registration and age as predictors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@accommodatingly certainly lower Dekalb is underserved. otherwise, pretty balanced https://t.co/LhlPtTtvq3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And although it's only early vote, that's basically what's been happening (so far) https://t.co/HuNmGL7lIw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JLF988 i don't know. we'll find out when we get the vote history data back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, what would scare me as a Republican is the possibility that Dems vote like it's a midterm and GOPers vote like it's a primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, this is basically a GOP primary. Lots of reason for GOP vt to be undecided. Nothing about a D+x electorate precludes R win. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But in 2016, the early vote was R+20 and Trump won by 1.5. So, there's nothing about even an R+15 E.V. that would preclude a D win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I honestly have no idea https://t.co/2IsjjnKJtN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The non-other vote, in comparison, is a mere 2% Asian — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One reason why the early vote is estimated to back Clinton bigly: the "other" vote is very young and diverse: 21% 18-29; 12% Asian (!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our estimate is that Clinton won 2017 early voters in GA-6 by 18 pts. Could be higher, if, say, early voting GOP more D (was true in KS-4) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Election day turnout in heavily Dem Dekalb county, which is very underserved by early voting centers (red dots), wi… https://t.co/uoOB1j2dMc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

GOP mainly catching up with reliable voters--of which there are many left to vote. https://t.co/lNKAFaNvIB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Dems have now officially matched the number of Dem primary voters from '14 early vote, though there are caveats I won't get into — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This district is R+20 by this measure of partisanship--primary vote history. So an R+20 day = a normal turnout / ~'16 electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Day 14 of early voting in GA-6 is R 52, D 32--first day that Trump probably would have won Over all, D 44, R 40… https://t.co/RFKE3bKqDj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Max_Fisher: I’ve already tweeted this like four times but I am tweeting it again because it is just staggering https://t.co/D5OxB2saZe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@batterystaple96 If that were true, and we'll know later, that would indeed be important — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@batterystaple96 That stat isn't accurate-- you don't know whether dems got 70% of their vote, or 40% plus a lot of trump-Thompson votes — PolitiTweet.org