Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also fun because... it sort of doesn't really matter? Either way, Democrats only have one card to play: give Manchin what he wants, and see whether it works — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's a fun one in part because there's really no way to prove whether Manchin deals in bad faith unless/until you call his bluff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A strongly felt disagreement playing out in my interactions: whether the core Democratic challenge is that a) Manchin deals in bad faith; b) Democrats don't take Manchin seriously/at his word — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(indeed, one-third of my feed right now says some version of 'take the deal') — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It would have been a hard pill for the WH to swallow. Even harder for progressives. Whatever else comes of Manchin's statement yesterday, there's no doubt that he's made his old deal look a lot more palatable to Biden/Dems https://t.co/ZAal5VOSYA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JStein_WaPo: Scoop: Manchin's private $1.8 trillion offer to Biden included pre-k for 10 years, ACA expansion, & close to WH climate sp… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @awprokop: This theory looks more plausible given Manchin's comments today. Notable that last week many progressives were arguing Dems/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @liamstack: The mood this weekend #Omicron https://t.co/KbrC600myj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias https://t.co/pqb16bQosn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @prchovanec: This is the most important chart in the country right now, out of New York City, and I'm going to keep posting it until peo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @samstein: Update from @burgessev @JonLemire @lbarronlopez White House is opening the door to a fall back BBB option of fewer programs p… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ryanstruyk: Vaccination status via new Monmouth poll: Democrats: 96% already received 2% soon or see how it goes 2% likely will never… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin @JuddLegum yes, it is very hard to construe the WH statement as ... productive for their cause — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin totally (i could make a clever argument about how going tough on manchin is key to WH cred with progressives, but i don't really believe that's what's going on) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JuddLegum @BenjySarlin yeah, exactly. and if you believe that, then manchin's conduct today probably helped advance BBB (stipulating that, for manchin, it was truly his way or the highway) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin now i don't know if this is *actually* the truth, as opposed to just a rationalization. after all, these are humans. but there's a perfectly rational explanation, if you take everyone at their word — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin now biden doesn't have to go tell progressives anything. the writing is on the wall. they don't have a choice: it's manchin or bust. the white house being upset adds to their credibility with progressives, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin maybe that's because biden's just exhausted with the whole thing, maybe that's because he didn't want to upset the progressives, maybe it's because he doesn't like manchin's offer. who knows. but at this point, manchin is arguably putting biden out of his misery today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin the catch, though, is that's not what happened. biden more-or-less cut off negotations this week, presumably in frustration that they weren't closer, rather than go to the progressives and say you've got to take the 1.8 fully paid for, manchin structure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin but there is some truth to it: without manchin doing something like this, the WH was in the pretty unenviable position of telling progressives they have to totally restructure the bill around manchin's demands — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BenjySarlin you could tell a story about how it's easier to get progressives on board for compromise if manchin kills the house vision first. the white house preserves its credibility most with progressives that way, esp if WH is visibly unhappy (see, their statement). this may be too clever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

or perhaps the path forward has already been put out https://t.co/yzlW84Tv0L — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, time will tell. He's done this bit before and it ended in a spot Democrats were fine with (kill HR1, but then write a bill on his own terms), so we'll just have to wait and see. Usually he puts out the 'optimistic' signal/path forward fairly quickly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Still not quite definitive, but the justification here seems closer to a clear no (as most of the arguments are about spending in general, not about the structure of the bill or something) https://t.co/YRJugcYThc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias that's one interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's definitely a 'road not taken' on the fully-funded Romney CTC proposal from the spring https://t.co/0KDPN86TM4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

yup https://t.co/WN4bP9vTHb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To this point, I think he's been fairly consistent about the basics of what he wants, and we've been going through a very slow process of progressives learning, bit by bit, they can't move him far off of it https://t.co/hvH5O0m1Mg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After all, he later leveled his long-standing critique of the House bill: it didn't fully fund programs, but instead partially funded a bunch of things. Perhaps it still leaves the door open for fully funded/prioritized bill, as he's argued over and over https://t.co/dG9SFtB48A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, he used some really strong "can't get there" language--so maybe it's the whole thing, not just the House blueprint. But you can also construe his comments to still allow for, say, 1.7bn over 10 years with fully funded programs, as he's implied before. Worth clarifying — PolitiTweet.org