Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile and, for the most part, the most notorious hyper majority-minority CDs in question in the article are... non-compact — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile and, again, i don't see there to be a tremendous amount of conflict between compactness and other standards. the gains from abandoning compactness are fairly marginal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile they don't have proprotionality. they're fptp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i think it's easy to oppose hyper majority districts when you can win at 40%, but i don't think that's what you're getting in milwaukee — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile obviously black americans have sort of long been torn between the integrationist and nationalist-type political models, but i think it's worth taking the latter seriously. the quebecois and the scots want their share in parliament, not to be 7% in a battleground seat — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i don't think that's for me to say, but my interpretation is that their goal is black representation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i haven't really looked at it, but there's a big conflict between the values you're promoting here and i don't think compactness is at the core of the issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i don't agree with that at all. black voters are 6% of the wisconsin population, but they're basically assured the ability to elect a candidate of their choice in one of the states eight CDs on a compact map. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile (and it's the VRA that said that minority-majority districts should be compact) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile yes, i do think compactness is basically a prerequisite to fair, credible map. but i also don't think compactness precludes consideration of other interests. the improvement in representation from 'compact' to 'non-compact' is usually very modest, esp on race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i'm not saying that reformers should give up on partisan fairness or nonpartisan line-drawers. i'm saying that compactness is one of several criteria that's basically essential to producing a credible map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias uh yeah. this is a democracy, so what some other people think is actually important — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias in all seriousness, this is such a classic example of why reformist liberalism has the challenges it has. give the public what it wants, realize that's pretty important, and maybe democracy will be stronger — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias no, they can not be explained. democracy is in peril, no one trusts institutions, partisanship is out of control, but obviously the public will assume its fair when experts draw squiggly lines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias no, they can not be explained. democracy is in peril, no one trusts institutions, but let's have experts draw squiggly lines on the assumption that ordinary people will assume they're fair — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias they share maps of weird districts because weird districts are presumptive evidence of malfeasance. if you think that in today's low trust society that you can overcome that with some statistics, i don't know what to tell you — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias IL-4* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias and instead of having to explain to people that IL-3 isn't a gerrymander, maybe it's worth recognizing that it's important for maps not to look like gerrymanders — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias and instead of having to explain to people that IL-3 isn't a gerrymander, maybe IL-3 shouldn't be a gerrymander — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @mattyglesias there's a reason people share maps of purported gerrymanders rather than say that the mean-median gap is 3 pts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias because they're the only districts that are presumptively legitimate and credible in the eyes of the public. the representational gains from non-compact districts are exceptionally modest, either in absolute terms or in comparison — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One random closing thought here, aimed more at the reformist left. It's fashionable on this website to dismiss compactness in favor of other criteria, but the reactions to the California map are a reminder that... https://t.co/uaCI8uvjc9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IF the Democrats had tried to deny the GOP a few CDs they could do so. They could potentially eliminate every one of them. But I'm not sure they've denied the GOP even a single CD that they're clearly entitled to, even if we conceded that the balance of choices work against them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I'll add a third point: the magnitude of the choice is relevant. Yes, these choices in Sac/Fresno shore up two Dems (nevermind that the reverse could be true in SoCal in a few cases). It's just not the same as outright denying a CD that a party is plainly entitled to — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I'd note that in the scheme of the whole map, that these choices in CO-08 and AZ-06 go a lot further toward deciding the over all character of a map than one or two CDs out of 52 in California — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There were lots of Democrats on this website declaring Colorado a gerrymander because they don't like the new CO-8, which I absolutely would not have drawn myself. Also not a gerrymander — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And more generally, I think it is very hard to declare a gerrymander off of a few choices you don't like! If Sacramento makes a gerrymander, is Arizona a GOP gerrymander because Tucson was split and denied Dems a seat they had before? No! https://t.co/Vu4ScifOtg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

First, there are plenty of cases where the Republicans should be quite happy with the lines, especially in southern California If you've got a mix of favorable and unfavorable choices, with no obvious net partisan effect, I don't think it's easy to say there's a gerrymander — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The other argument I see: a few cases (mainly Sacramento and CA-20) where people think the lines are bad for the Republicans, which I personally agree with! The question is whether that makes it a gerrymander, and I don't think it adds up to one for two main reasons — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at Texas, 52% of people live in Biden counties and 46% live in Biden precincts. That would yield a pretty evenly divided congressional delegation, which is also what I get when I draw a map by nonpartisan standards — PolitiTweet.org