Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not the most cleanly threaded discussion I've ever been a part of, but an interesting discussion here on some of the legal risks that might shape the scope of the FTPA https://t.co/PuTzND3dJ7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject i might be remembering wrong, but i kind of think roberts questioning in the oral arguments in that case = the first time i had heard of this as a plausible path forward — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject though Rucho seemed to imply the court thought the guarantee clause might be a/the appropriate remedy, it's just not judicable (presumably bc congress is the one supposed to be making the guarantee) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfGuyCharles @rickhasen @ElectProject though iirc Rucho seemed to imply the court thought the guarantee clause might be a/the appropriate remedy, it's just not judicable (as congress would be the one to enforce it) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen @ElectProject unless there's some clever--and probably hard to sketch on twitter--argument for why FTPA is a goldilocks bill that's just big enough but just cautious enough to avoid these risks, but that's not really my interpretation of what you're saying — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen @ElectProject it does make sense--but that kind of logic doesn't obviously lend itself to include some kinds of provisions over others. it just argues for smaller or separate bills. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen @ElectProject this kind of provision isn't part of a comprehensive scheme and no other part of the law rests on the same legal authority. so what's the catch? and if the court would take even the flimsiest excuse, why isn't the whole law a doomed waste of time? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen @ElectProject i appreciate your appeal to expertise, but having already acknowledged it i think an actual explanation would be more productive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@marceelias @rickhasen @ElectProject to my mind, this is an easy case for severability. it's not part of a comprehensive scheme and no other part of the law depends on the same legal authority. what's the catch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@marceelias @rickhasen @ElectProject feel free to explain! as i said, i'm not a lawyer. but i don't find it credible on its face, and i'd assume the whole law is doomed and a waste of time if that view of the risk is applied elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen @ElectProject i know you're the law prof, but i don't find that credible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it is untested, though for that reason i'm agnostic on what the supreme court would do with a narrow use of the clause (republican gvt = majority rule = can't have lines drawn with the intent or effect of minority rule + a standard). in any case, it's cheap to try; they didn't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jordanzakarin i don't think OH, PA, WI are subject to preclearance under the new formula — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@apantazi @grace_panetta the other law bans mid-decade redistricting, but, in any case, it's not in the law they're intending to pass today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jordanzakarin too late — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@grace_panetta not in that particular legislation, no, since they're trying to use the election clause. the republican government clause was another route, though, and they didn't try it. and the JL bill is now too late for the states that already passed new lines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot sort of--you can't regulate states with the elections clause and establish the kind of commission structure that they wanted. but the republican government clause is another option, and they didn't take a shot at it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This lead reminds me that the FPVA doesn't address state legislative gerrymanders. Another area besides certification/subversion where the voting rights push has had weird blinders https://t.co/14OHQcibqB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A symptom, cause and cure of/for a lot of political woes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bluestein: To give you an idea of where Biden’s visit ranks in Atlanta news right now in the aftermath of the Georgia championship, her… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan there's plenty of room to argue against that argument, but it does merit being grappled with. what i see--including in this thread, oddly--is that it never gets squarely addressed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan the book's point is that they could have a policy agenda *on* democracy--rolling back voting rights, and that the filibuster norm would offer some protection against it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan (and it's that cost-benefit analysis that i don't see anyone actually making, even though i don't think it's very hard. instead i see people saying some version of 'the gop has no 60 vote legislative agenda' on nondemocracy issues like taxes) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan yes, though you're not actually saying they got it wrong--unless you're saying there's zero risk that the GOP restrict voting rights without the filibuster. you're just saying you'd rather be a first mover, which is totally defensible but does require grappling with downside risk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan the filibuster doesn't intrinsically protect or undermine democracy. in the book, the filibuster protects democracy by making it harder for the GOP to rollback voting rights. it's just the flip side of why Dems want to get rid of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has created all kinds of oddities about this process, like the head blaming the tail for not knowing how to get to where it needs to go (even though tail doesn't have a brain or eyes) and now tail blaming the head for ineffectual wagging, even though tail is the one wagging — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has created all kinds of oddities about this process, like the head blaming the tail for not knowing how to get to where it needs to go--even though it doesn't have a brain or eyes, and the tail blaming the head for not knowing either, even though it's the one wagging — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tail has been wagging dog on this issue from the start https://t.co/QIlQzMC0w7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: SCHUMER JUST NOW on voting rights: “The Senate is going to act as soon as tomorrow" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can't really say what anyone should do. What I can do is analyze a bill on its own terms: does it accomplish its own objectives? And certification stands out as a requirement in any bill crafted as a purported response to what happened in '20 https://t.co/gVrv2cvY2x — PolitiTweet.org