Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 @SeanMcElwee a few tests: third terms, whether your opposition needs to make big shifts to return to competitiveness, surviving midterms, whether pres or their legislative efforts both define the meaning of your party in a positive way going forward and moved politics your way ideologically — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 @SeanMcElwee a few tests: third terms, whether your opposition needs to make big shifts to return to competitiveness, surviving midterms whether you/your legislative efforts both define the meaning of your party in a positive way going forward and moved politics your way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 @SeanMcElwee i think there's arguably no politically successful Democrat since FDR, which i think is something democrats should mull a little more often. GOP: lincoln, mckinnley-roosevelt, coolidge, i think nixon would have been without watergate, reagan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanMcElwee i mean, LBJ didn't run for reelection and his party lost 5 of the next six elections. obama's approval rating was usually under 50 and lost a large house majority. accounting for their policy successes, i don't necessarily think they're failures as a whole, to be clear — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @LarryGlickman and on the historical point, i do think that the preponderance of the first new deal can be *fairly* put in the various RRR buckets, even if some of the items were not new (TVA is certainly among the more borderline cases) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @LarryGlickman there was probably room for biden to do some of that--paid family/medical leave is an obvious example of something you can construe as a response to the circumstances. i think calling bbb an anti-inflation measure is.... another cateogry — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie maybe this isn't the passage you meant? the TVA is certainly one element of the first new deal that nudges toward the biden end of the spectrum, but i don't think this amounts to a refutation of my description of the first new deal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie the second new deal--social security, wagner--and later his second term is more analogous to biden, but also has a more equivocal political legacy. by then, he had already established unusual political strength ('34 midterm) and also came with big political losses — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie i think the first new deal is pretty unequivocally tied to the depression, without anything remotely comparable to framing climate mitigation as a response to our current situation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@richardmskinner that's not the problem with the argument--that's the point. his efforts didn't deal with the issues that were hurting him. fdr, in contrast, focused on the stuff that ranked highest on voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know people don't like criticism of their preferred political party, but this is not a hard or controversial point to grasp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's just as we were always taught about FDR in US history: he decided to focus his legislative efforts on areas entirely unrelated to the great depression and then gained seats in the midterms — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Political scientists seem to think that FDR would have been popular if his first 100 days had been to expand universal pre-K. Talk about missing the point https://t.co/7cJtRDHcTR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan talk about missing the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And remember, almost by definition, the persuadable voters do not necessarily *love* the Democratic agenda, even if they like it. They would be Democrats if they did. That's a major reason why big policy ideological initiatives never really seem to help any president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ask me whether I like cake, I'll say yes--politely (I don't love it tbh) Bring me a cake if my house is burning, and maybe I won't really approve of your performance https://t.co/hwLK1t06Mc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The magic of FDR's first term was that the *circumstances* brought an alignment between the public's demands and liberal hopes for bold initiatives, framed as a necessary response to an immediate crisis. Biden had a chance to capture that, and he's lost the thread — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Once you reach that conclusion about Biden, I do think you have to ask that question about the rest of them--about nearly every Dem term from FDR's second term to today. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many critiques of those presidencies were tactical: With Clinton, the problem was that the bill didn't pass. With Obama, the bill wasn't popular. With Biden... it's strategic: these initiatives, disconnected from top issues, don't seem to be what the public really wants — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm not surprised by the replies of course, but I'll leave this for you to mull: The last three Dem presidents came into office, pushed big transformative legislative initiatives, found themselves at 45% approval after a year. There may be a political problem with this strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JamesSurowiecki unequivocal failure* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JamesSurowiecki the democrats would lose five of the six presidential elections following his term. he didn't run for reelection. there's a lot to praise about lbj, but as an electoral project his presidency is a pretty unequivocal https://t.co/d76ZrAcL4S — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

tbh Biden hasn't had any difficulty passing legislation that's aimed at dealing with immediate challenges / that has a chance to help him politically https://t.co/Ro6b3gISyL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I cited this recent CBS/YouGov poll several times, and I think it's worth taking a look at if you missed it. Public opinion isn't always straightforward, but Biden's situation isn't really all that complicated https://t.co/BxcCLWdiNu https://t.co/zVwTn0lK5t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden was supposed to be FDR. Instead, he's following the playbook of the last half century of politically unsuccessful Democratic presidencies, from LBJ and Clinton to Obama. The result: only 33% say he's focused on the issues they care about https://t.co/UonFH227AE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a bill that *passed the Senate* with bipartisan support containing billions for domestic semiconductor production (there's a big shortage, helping drive up car costs etc) and Biden didn't even mention it in his prepared remarks yesterday https://t.co/Ab5OYwcLMJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are lots of legitimately hard, tough questions in thinking about politics today, and making sense of Biden's approval rating is just not among them https://t.co/WzJYCnwuVQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PopulismUpdates: Results are coming through in Barbados now, you can watch some live election coverage here: https://t.co/Ddvmbr2XJm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamliptak: BREAKING: Supreme Court turns down Trump’s request to block release of Jan. 6 files. https://t.co/vjQlMVWysk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel bonne chance — PolitiTweet.org