Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jamalgreene @mattyglesias one could, but it's definitely an unusual case to be instrumental about fundamental rights (as opposed to, say, being instrumental about corporate campaign contributions). i can't think of an analogy quite like it, short of war or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PatrickRuffini i can't find it now, but patrick tweeted to me that he'd support a real compactness standard, presumably stronger than the pre-1940 one, and i think that could have a fairly similar effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias totally--and they still don't want it! but you started by saying you were genuinely confused, and i don't think it's genuinely confusing--there's something unique about the situation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias It would be more analogous, to, say, the GOP deciding it can impose literacy tests in the north to disenfranchise immigrant Catholics bc the Dems did the same thing in the South — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @mattyglesias for ex., i think there are big differences between this and, say, accepting large corporate donations just bc… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias for ex., i think there are big differences between this and, say, accepting large corporate donations just bc the other side does, which has a lot of the same logic and reasoning behind it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i'm actually not saying the dems shouldn't do what they're doing. i am saying that there is something interesting unusual if democrats believe gerrymandering is tantamount to violating fundamental rights, etc. it's hard to think of analogies imo https://t.co/24Kec1Eip2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias this isn't to say that the GOP complaints aren't awfully hollow given their own record, but there is something unusual here given the severity of what Dems have alleged (and no one expects MD/NY/IL courts to intervene to protect the fundamental rights purportedly at stake) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias this isn't to say that the GOP complaints aren't awfully hollow given their own record, but there is something unusual here given the severity of what Dems have alleged (and no one excepts MD/NY/IL courts to intervene to protect the fundamental rights purportedly at stake) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias to take a different ex., I don't think we would say, for ex, Dems could justify disenfranchising Evangelicals bc the GOP disenfranchised Black voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias i do think there is something to the GOP complaint of hypocrisy: the D claim is that gerrymandering isn't merely bad, but unconstitutional/anti-democratic/violation of the right to vote. typically, we don't think of that as something that can ever be justified by the other side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini what’s a deal you’d take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I'd note that this goes well beyond where the NC court went last time--it was ok with an 8-5 GOP map when it last ordered a new map; it doesn't really seem to me like the equivalent map would pass muster so easily this time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So my guess is that the court would *not* going to be happy with a map like that, which merely creates two new Dem seats and leaves in place a significant GOP bias by those measures. If the GOP doesn't do more, the court redraw the map itself--with big downside risk for the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A map like this one--with two additional Democratic-leaning CDs--would still leave the GOP with a 9-5 edge, an R+11 efficiency gap, and a huge 10 net-pt mean-median gap https://t.co/ZadgGVLp2S — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The decision doesn't, say, order the GOP to uncrack Greensboro/Black areas of northeast NC. Instead, it asks Republicans to rely on various statistical measures, like mean-median/efficiency gap, to determine the fairness of the plan. https://t.co/ISgKio2tN6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Heading into today's NC ruling, I had assumed that a pro-Democratic ruling would probably add two Democratic-leaning CDs--one in Greensboro, the other in the rural northeastern part of the state. But based on this decision, the Democrats have more upside — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JoshStein_: BREAKING: Fantastic news for voters and the health of our democracy -- the NC Supreme Court just struck down the legislativ… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlexThomp: Pence says Trump is “wrong” about January 6th “I heard this week that President Trump said I had the right to overturn the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ladder2babel @davidshor @JakeMGrumbach no--not a trend that's worth looking at, anyway. as i said, there's not enough sample for other groups to show anything but noise. and it's not a very precise subgroup--a majority of unionized voters in the dataset fall into this category. ('non south' all outside the south btw) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ladder2babel @davidshor @JakeMGrumbach at the same time, limiting to white northern working class acts as a de facto control for race, edu, region in lieu of a regression — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ladder2babel @davidshor @JakeMGrumbach there's not enough data to look at any other edu x race x region group over time. in most years, total union hh respondents < 200 across *all* non-white/north/nocol groups combined — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really a sea-change in political alignment. In some way, it marks the real end of the New Deal-era of politics. And indeed, there's a lot about Trump that feels straight out of the 1920s GOP, which did enjoy a lot of support among white working class northerners — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Since part of the debate was confusion/debate over interpretation of a regression output, here's something more easily interpreted: the difference in Dem support between union and non-union white, no college northerners in the ANES https://t.co/iUIqs5xB1d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a bit of debate this AM about the so-called union premium--whether Dems do better among union workers than non-union workers, controlling for demographics. There's a clear answer imo: Dems still do a little better. What's really striking to me tho is the change over time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @RyanDEnos @JakeMGrumbach @edburmila what's pres-16 two way--is it vote choice or geographic results? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @710ESPNSeattle: National Signing Day has come and gone, and the UW Huskies football program is in a spot Dawg fans aren't accustomed to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable develop… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris not terribly relevant when the benchmark is... with respect to the national vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if even if we just take the 'good' map options for Democrats in just those five states, you wind up with the median seat being 52.5% for Biden by major party vote, with some upside beyond that, and 232 seats carried by Biden in '20 — PolitiTweet.org