Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Several Democratic governors have announced plans to roll back mask mandates for schools and indoor public spaces, citing a dr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: Whoa — USICA has a new name. “Make it in America.” Schumer just announced this. This is the third name. Previous names: En… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @B_radJ_ones: Trump has been out of the national spotlight, and both Republicans and Democrats assign him less blame now for the events… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @michelleinbklyn: https://t.co/Dwx6FSY79B https://t.co/yq12MF3LfF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, the GOP goal will be to get to the point where the only operative standard is the bar on retrogression. It's tricky to get to that point--and this court probably wants to help them get there--but it will be a challenge, and the AL brief alone doesn't get them there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately, the GOP goal will be to get to the point where the old operative standard is the bar on retrogression. It's tricky to get to that point--and this court probably wants to help them get there--but it will be a challenge, and the AL brief alone doesn't get them there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while the house may be on their side, I do think conservative lawyers still have their work cut out for them--protecting the gerrymander in TX/GA while arguing for a higher compactness standard in AL is going to be a narrow needle to thread, and it'll take some craftiness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this is a really high stakes case--and it would be quite a bit of a gamble for the GOP, at least if they didn't think the house--ie the court--was on their side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever you think of the status quo, the more ambiguous interpretation of compactness in Gingles to this point does make it somewhat easier for the GOP to justify something like the old TX-33 (or its current equivalent which i haven't committed to memory yet) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever you think of the status quo, the more ambiguous interpretation of compactness in Gingles to think point does make it somewhat easier for the GOP to justify something like the old TX-33 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By the traditional standards of compactness, there should pretty clearly be additional minority-majority CDs in Cobb County and DFW, for example. The arguments the GOP is putting forward in Alabama would clearly argue for some additional minority-majority CDs there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So this is a really high-stakes case--and although the court may protect the GOP against the downside risks, the AL argument actually does create some severe downside risks for the GOP elsewhere, especially in metropolitan TX/GA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The catch, of course, is that the current AL-7 doesn't meet that standard either--you'd never draw the Black Belt to downtown Birmingham CD (or Mobile for that matter, as in the case of the demonstration map). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 'compactness' standard in Gingles has always been poorly defined. The AL application is arguing for a higher standard for compactness--something in-line with the standard for compactness that exists in non-VRA districts (COI, geographic regions, crossing jurisdictional lines) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One way to think about the Alabama application is that it's an implicit argument that there shouldn't be any Black majority CD in Alabama--or, at least not one that extends out of the so-called Black Belt https://t.co/nRWJwhb30J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @caphilltrish: “How do you make sure that the certifying officer follows the vote?” @SenatorRomney says of the sub-group trying to figur… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @caphilltrish: Romney says the group is currently looking into “what’s the remedy for that” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @caphilltrish: After subgroup met on ECA reform, @SenatorRomney tells reporters, “the place that we really need more information is what… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On that second clause: I think it's going to be hard for the court to accept the current map without weakening the standard for a 'minority-majority' CD--and that seems like where we're heading. The demonstration maps are pretty plainly as compact as the current map. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The SCOTUS decision in Alabama can't be considered a surprise given the makeup of the court, but it wasn't a foregone conclusion. It both narrows the Democratic path to a more balanced congressional map and further clouds the already murky standards for 'majority-minority' CDs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @stevenpsloan: WASHINGTON (AP) — In win for GOP, Supreme Court blocks order requiring Alabama to redraw congressional districts ahead of… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mjs_DC: BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote, with Roberts joining the liberals in dissent, the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that require… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKThomp i wasn't trying to seem like i was disagreeing; just piggy-backing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't just a media group, ofc--it's a fairly large group of swing-ish young men, disproportionately non-college and non-white https://t.co/dtH06tM6td https://t.co/B9kV3sW17D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/vLReA7tITJ https://t.co/LFHdYSifcC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, you could have said some version of this case several times over the last year. It's not hard to imagine how events might get in the way, as they have already. But there's an obvious path to better numbers from here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The economic numbers last week were great. He can get a Supreme Court justice win. It's only up from here for his legislative agenda after BBB/FTPA. COVID numbers are plummeting, and there's an opening for Biden to lead the way back to normalcy--which was always his core pitch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's at a low-point in the polls right now, but it does not take any great imagination to imagine how this could be the moment for a turn around https://t.co/uwE8grca4N — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Breaking News: New Jersey’s governor, a Democrat, is expected to end mask mandates in schools for students and teachers, in wh… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @JHWeissmann @bmaz @mjs_DC if you actually believe that gerrymandering violates a fundamental right--ie, more than simply playing rules of the game---then yes, there's some kind of moral dilemma, even if not a hard one in the circumstances. there's a third party who is injured — PolitiTweet.org