Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan mail ballots were 58-42 D heading into the election, 65-35 R among in-person ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonHeyman: Japanese star Seiya Suzuki is headed to Cubs @thekapman reports $70M, 5 years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: If one is looking for further evidence that Trump realizes now that his Putin praise was a problem, see 👇 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's entirely possible that there's nothing more the GM could have done--maybe they did try to spend enough, but free agents just declined. But I don't know that. Similarly, voters have no idea whether Biden really could have done more, short of war/a preposterous contract — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think it's hard to draw an analogy to how voters could think about Biden Polls show voters think Biden should have been tougher--I think this GM should have spent more. And in both cases, the GM/Biden didn't meet core goal: stopping Russia, being favored to make playoffs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically, I approve of all the moves the GM has made--some I think are great, even--but they probably could have/should have spent more money and I don't think the team is competitive as it ought to be as a result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've run into a case in sports where I think I'd answer these questions differently--approve of the actions of a GM this off season but maybe disapproving of their handling of the off season. https://t.co/0JNdmYkmoO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Local12Skinny: FWIW per @spotrac Ken Griffey Jr. is the sixth-highest paid #Reds player this season at $3.59 million — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In all seriousness, I think these hires say a lot about the scope of our ambitions. If that sounds exciting to you--and if you don't mind staying up on election night--you should apply! And feel free to reach out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You would be working closely with me in all of these roles, which I hope doesn't deter too many of you from applying lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For my part, I'm remaining at the Times as chief political analyst. I'll be helping to set editorial direction and I'll have broad responsibility for election night modeling and our political polling methodology — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're hiring a software engineer to help obtain election results data and work on the data pipelines/frontend tools that use it https://t.co/FlcmHl7rxi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're hiring a survey research analyst to help support our extensive political polling efforts https://t.co/ZMP3SDFxbY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're hiring a data scientist/statistican to help build the models behind the needle and the infrastructure for managing voter files https://t.co/eHITcZRShI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're also hiring additional data scientists, software engineers, and survey research analysts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're open-minded about what might right candidate might bring to the table, so I'd encourage you to apply! You could could be a political/data scientist with management/web experience; you could be a full stack developer who works with election data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're hiring a director of election data analytics to manage and oversee these diverse efforts, from scraping precincts and managing voter files to publishing the needle. https://t.co/IdBfydEge7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hiring news: We're adding several new election-related positions to better support, sustain and expand our already extensive election data work, including the needle and NYT polling. https://t.co/FJs7Cf47qA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @PatrickRuffini the flash forward model is just a model of '17 turnout applied to the '21 file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @PatrickRuffini everyone knew going into this that the electorate would be older in '21 than '20, just like it was older in '17/18 than '16. no one thought this was a material issue for Dems, since... it isn't really one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @PatrickRuffini but it's... what always happens in non-presidential elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @tbonier .3 ppts higher on >65/>75 share of the electorate than actual share of the electorate* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @tbonier i also have to say that i see absolutely nothing interesting in the age data? the very standard pre-election 'flash-forward' type model was a mere 0.3 ppts higher on > age 65 and >75 turnout than actual turnout? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @tbonier (my own view is that the exceptionally uniform swing off of '20 tells us that's the useful benchmark or, at the very least, tells us what's explaining shift from '17) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @tbonier he's doing analysis based on '17, you're doing it off of '20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MarkMazzettiNYT: This was a poor investment https://t.co/ON0I99T5KS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @cliffordlevy: .@nytimes is deeply saddened to learn of the death of an American journalist in Ukraine, Brent Renaud. Brent was a talent… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: On Biden’s coming pivot — and the angst-ridden House Dems eager for a course correction > https://t.co/4CJgjazAnC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(it's also nice to see an explicit indication that the public recognizes it generally supports Biden's actions, so that my replies don't have to drown in the assertion that the disconnect between approval and policy is simply the media's fault) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's a nice reminder that 'approval' has always been tied to conditions (situation in Ukraine = not good, Biden being held responsible) more than support or opposition to a policy agenda — PolitiTweet.org