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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I definite buy that Booker has the most upside of the candidates who haven't had a breakout. So why hasn't he had one? I have some hypotheses, but what do you think? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @KevinQ: @chadbatka @celestesloman @emilymbadger And my only good cartogram ever (dont @ me) https://t.co/cJIQxooiFO https://t.co/7u5qQJ… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @KevinQ: New in today's Upshot — last weekend 526 voters representative of all Americans registered to vote gathered for a weekend outsi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @amanbatheja: A lot going on here... https://t.co/URO6zgWWdH https://t.co/ivtigPnEmm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Interesting, and a different take from the first few live interview polls we got--Marist and Quinnipiac--which actually showed Trump approval ticking up a bit. A key question to watch https://t.co/zUxgJf4uCL — PolitiTweet.org
Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics
CNBC -- which uses the same Dem/GOP polling firms as our NBC/WSJ poll does -- just released their latest survey sho… https://t.co/I8AHcfnBlB
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @A_agadjanian: New from me @UpshotNYT: survey experiment I conducted gauging voter reactions to greater leftist rhetoric + policies comi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @MysteryPollster: And an important lede buried: https://t.co/8FebQtd9XK is *back*!! https://t.co/1GV4Vb2Y1B — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @h0egenic: when you suddenly remember that one embarrassing thing you said 5 years ago https://t.co/ot0uJUjme8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@LPDonovan @BretBaier (teenagers in 2012, to be fair) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@jon_m_rob @Civiqs @DrewLinzer otoh it was already higher than most other polls, presumably bc of dems — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
For what it's worth (~nothing), these first polls seem consistent with expectations: a quick rallying of Democratic support to something near even in the polls, but no Dem breakthrough yet. Trump approval still looks fine, even good in Marist. But again this is just the beginning — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
That said, it's super early and so I wouldn't care too much about these polls except as a fleeting marker of where we're at. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The Kavanaugh polls are a pretty natural marker of what you might expect if Dems rally and unify without a breakthrough. Modest opposition to Kav/support for impeach in that case. I'd be interested in whether Dems can do better that that. Trump approval just as important — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
As new polls start to trickle in, consider some of my thoughts from this morning on what we might expect and what it might mean https://t.co/SR3ClhXC62 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @dgelles: check out the messages emanating from a Tim Hortons in Columbus, Ohio. Zero context, all 🔥🔥🔥. https://t.co/7qtHkBe5dm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@LaraMBrownPhD i think it's more like 'if the democrats nominate a candidate who is every bit as good as they say, would you vote for them or trump" — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Obviously, a major debate will be establishing whether those facts are right, and the GOP/Trump will undoubtedly fight to argue that this is not a sufficient basis for impeachment should those facts be proven. But an interesting marker — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
YouGov poll--asking whether Trump should be impeached *if* he suspended military aid to prod investigation--shows possible support for impeachment: 55% support, 26% against; 32-49 among GOP *not* the same as 55-26 support today; poses a hypothetical https://t.co/zyj3uaAW9l — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @OrrChris: This seems important. https://t.co/cywICefmqq https://t.co/2mqJMJ2VMU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @maggieNYT: It is stunning >>> https://t.co/rU87AmeEBF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ernietedeschi 14 guam https://t.co/jrVFCbRblH — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ernietedeschi iirc 3 is a placeholder for american samoa, should it be needed — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @nickconfessore: I’m not sure how our @nytimes style guide can withstand this blunt force truth. https://t.co/3N5954SXHX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @aseitzwald: I've heard of ground game and I've heard of the air wars but a campaign navy is new. https://t.co/7PytDTD1Mp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
(same with Booker, who I've neglected here even though I think he may have the most upside of anyone) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And I'm less interested in Bullock simply because it seems like there's less reason to think he will have made gains, not it would be any less interesting than Klobuchar if he did — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I should note that I'm less interested in Pete/Sanders in no small part because their positions are more established so a single poll isn't going to teach us a ton here unless it's a fairly substantial movement — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@Pbrady55 i think we already know pete has some o2 in IA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Why? Well, I don't really care a *ton* about where exactly Warren/Biden stand here. We know Warren has emerged and, 1 poll won't resolve who's ahead. But the emergence of other white liberal-moderate type candidates in Iowa, like Klob, could alter the dynamics of the race — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
A recent poll had Klobuchar at 8 in Iowa, and it was also reported that a poll by a Harris pollster had her ahead of Harris in an IA poll — PolitiTweet.org
