Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT On the issues, Iowa Dems seem supportive of progressive agenda items. But by a modest margin, they say they prefer a more moderate Dem > liberal, someone who reaches out to the GOP > fight for bold progressive agenda, and someone who improves existing health system > MFA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT Iowa Dems do think sexism hurt Clinton in 16 and that it's harder to win as a woman. But fascinatingly, Warren does better among those voters--perhaps because those views prevail among well-educated progressives, inclined to support Warren. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT At least in Iowa, it sure seems to me that Biden's electability-edge is not so much of a factor. Voters seem confident the Dems will beat Trump and just as confident in Warren as Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidkanevsky @alexburnsNYT yes voter file, yes PPS sampling, no turnout score, since we have no past iowa caucus history. probabilistic self-report only — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alexburnsNYT Biden has been reduced to a mere 2 percent of voters under age 45, even as he leads among those over age 45 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our first Times/Siena poll is out in the state of Iowa: Warren 22 Sanders 19 Buttigeig 18 Biden 17 @alexburnsNYT with the story https://t.co/X74g4N2f25 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright folks, get ready https://t.co/B0OxG9iMzx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten ok but at least there's water around — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @carolynryan: Congrats to ⁦@archietse⁩, new @nytimes graphics editor! True fact: he was model for NYC choking poster seen in restaurants… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tealtalk right or wrong, the map doesn't provide clear evidence for it--we have a dem oversample in iowa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've got some interesting stuff going down as we head into the final stretch https://t.co/c4jwMYYWW0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's some interesting stuff going down as we enter the final stretch https://t.co/pmI82Yh6q8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm a huge believer in this, as our polling choices show. That said, I find it hard to reconcile our numbers (or Marquette) with these cataclysmically bad national numbers, even accounting for the battleground R lean. TBH it makes me wonder about Texas https://t.co/I6dcNmAcdj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@puckfan74 @ParkerMolloy maybe my all time favorite tweet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BMcM2018: A map showing party representation following the Canadian federal/parliamentary elections this week and the U.S. House electi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten to be fair we were at n=1 like 96 times last year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And you'll just have to wait and see about what we find on the horse race or Trump approval https://t.co/RjBHK4i77u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

your bonus, live poll-ish update: Wisconsin "impeach and remove" is currently at support 45, oppose 50 in our data (N=473 so far) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Very similar to our results for the presidential battlegrounds https://t.co/wtD0hFjmtM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: New Marquette Law School Poll finds 46% of WI registered voters say there is enough cause for Congress to hold Trump impeach… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyone ever hear of the theory that presidential approval rating increases in presidential election years because it's asked after the horse race? Or am I making that up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And lol at my replies. Folks, there's nothing about seeing the other side's arguments playing out that means you're wrong or that you have to change your views. You can understand both sides, imagine the other side, and continue to be 100% convinced in a national vote. It's fine — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or a not impossible future in the US, where Dems win the big coastal states (even including TX/FL/GA) but lose a high-turnout, white, old, working class American interior by a huge margins — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But for those (presumably mainly liberals) who don't really give any credit to the regionalism argument on behalf of the E.C., it is worth mulling how they would feel about a one-sided vote in Alberta/Sask. basically overruling the country — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, IMO the Electoral College is not really the natural way of addressing the 'regionalism' concern. It is possible to take regionalism seriously and think the E.C. has some serious issues, by essentially introducing unnecessary noise/luck into close elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is basically the scenario that Electoral College defenders cite to defend a winner-take-all system: the possibility that one region could basically decide the result for the rest of the country. Again, that's not what we've had in the US, but here it plays out IRL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the reverse of what we see in the US House at the district-level, where Dems runup the score in the cities. It's not really like what we see in the Electoral College, where both Democrats and the GOP waste fairly equal numbers in say CA v. strong red states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

conservatives wind up *wasting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving the causes aside for a second, the end result is that the conservatives wind up more votes in landslide margins. Liberals would win a hypothetical Canadian Electoral College vote with narrower wins in ON/QU and elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other hand, the left is split between the Greens, NDP and Liberals, denying the Liberals the opportunity to run up the score in the sort of places where they might have run-up the score in a one-on-one race — PolitiTweet.org