Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just deleted a tweet about two KY counties that the AP had briefly and erroneously characterized as 100% reporting (I usually have checks against this set up on my computer, but i'm not fully set up as I usually would be after all this polling) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These counties aren't representative of course, and individual results will be noisy. But given national trends, I would have said that Bevin needs to hold up pretty well in the rural areas, given certain challenges in Fayette/Jefferson — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Kenutcky's a race, with Bevin underperforming his 9 pt win by 10 and 4 pts in the first two rural counties--lawrence and larue--to reach 100% counted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

{tomorrow, you get a day off to digest the results tonight) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On Thursday, we'll dive into the views and characteristics of nonvoters in the six swing states https://t.co/sguID9Lbb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls are closed in most of Kentucky NYT results are here >> https://t.co/6p48KHNh9j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten i mean, i can still name every atlantic tropical cyclone from 1995, so i wouldn't rule out remembering kentucky's status in 1996 if you were into politics yet (i was not) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten do you? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth a read Also worth a read: Standing at Armageddon, which covers from 1876-1919, and was my first post-2016 election re-read https://t.co/9tZUFMARQ1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: The latest long-form piece: "This 1870s Show" https://t.co/dG6qZMlJBP 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HWMNBN1988 it's something we're looking at — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tough to say which state has the best map of our respondents https://t.co/GnbUuOvJiz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: @DogmaticPrior @danielrock @otis_reid @economeager The polls in 2018 were actually pretty bad, people just didn't notice bec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AJentleson @Civiqs @DataProgress i actually thought they were pretty consistent with us. biden up by 1.3 pts v trump, v. biden+2 for us. difference is that they have no biden-warren gap (actually warren better), which i suppose can't be ruled out but is certainly different from most every other poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: NEW: In an email to supporters, the Biden campaign said "other candidates can't" beat Trump. But the polling chart th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickconfessore to be fair, NYC may be the wrong place for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Also, the NYT/Siena finding that 15% of voters in key states are genuinely persuadable should remind everyone to beware pun… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Breaking News: The U.S. ambassador Gordon Sondland, a key witness in the impeachment inquiry, acknowledged delivering a quid p… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Next in our series: a look at the voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018, both over all and the one's who say that, if they voted, they'd vote for the Democrat https://t.co/udgKTAaNKA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We found a fairly modest nudge towards Dems among WWC women--a net-6 points, compared to our compilation of 2016 data. Men essentially unmoved or a tick better for Trump https://t.co/MYiQ60ofWZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also find relatively few women among the undecided, which I'd say defies the typical conventional wisdom. This could be the flip side of the white working class phenomenon: they made their swing in '16, leaving men as an outsized share of the undecided — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that this strikes me as a difference between our poll and recent national surveys showing double digit leads for Democrats. So I would hold out the possibility that more of these voters are in play than we've found here, though in the end I'd guess they return Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A major surprise, for me, was the relative absence of older, white working class voters of the sort who might have gone Obama-->Trump-->Dem. They seem inclined to stick with the president, at least in our poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

kind of *into the Trump show — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The former--affluent moderate-types who don't like Trump, but don't hate his policies and really aren't down with the left--seem like no surprise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The latter is a real revelation to me: young, men, often nonwhite, kind of the Trump show, doesn't understand or even resents elite PC culture, does not like Warren, but is in no way conservative on the issues and still wants big change — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also, probably wisely, rejected two semi-serious proposed nicknames for two kinds of swing voters: the HBO conservatives and the MMA (or WWE) populists — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We went in-depth on the persuadable voters in our surveys, who said they were really open to voting for either Trump or the Democrat. They weren't what I expected https://t.co/dtH06tM6td — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EversonEvan party registration is a fixed characteristic that we can sample and weight on. they can be whatever party they tell us. our sample in PA, for instance, is D+3 by party ID and D+9 by registration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That doesn't mean it's infallible and it could be wrong for other reasons, but they are real advantages. — PolitiTweet.org