Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is it possible that there's a huge rebellion against Trump there? Maybe. Possibly. But when we polled NE-2 last year (a Trump+2 CD), we had Trump approval at minus-2. When we polled IA-4, we had Trump+18 approval and got the result about right — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The state voted for Trump by 25, voted GOP by like 20 in the House vote/ Here are our recent measures there... PRRI: Trump favorability -4 Morning Consult: Trump approval -4 (that's worse than TX/FL/NC/GA/AZ) Civiqs: Trump+7 (only a few pts better than OH/TX) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An unlikely state that's giving me pause about the state of political polling right now is... Nebraska https://t.co/kd0tvOWWa6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Things that do seem real: --Warren has a real issue with affluent moderates --Dem breakthrough in Arizona --A lot of low turnout, persuadable, non-conservative, less educated, often younger voters who aren't sold on Dems/left, aren't outraged by Trump and may be Trump curious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) Biden has no special strength with white working class voters 2) Warren has no special challenge with white w.w.c. vote 3) No real choice between persuasion and turnout for Dems 4) Trump can keep up in a high turnout election 5) No Sun Belt v. Rust Belt choice for Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Five results that might change the way you think about electability https://t.co/nsVBQcJ2mf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe a different way of looking at it: the black respondents (in *this* poll) who turned out in 2016 say they voted for Clinton 86-5, while that same group of validated black voters say they prefer Biden over Trump, 86-6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And fwiw, these samples are small enough that I'm not necessarily sure whether Biden is much behind Clinton among black voters, which seems to be the only material difference here. He's up 82-8 among 360 black voters; Clinton was up 83-4 in our compilation of late polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this is where Warren has name ID challenge / post primary consolidation opportunity But as a general proposition, I'm not sure Democrats can expect to match their typical strength among nonwhite voters against incumbent presidents https://t.co/eTSyjvom4Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Deval prospect also a good reminder of how the party has moved: imagine telling Mass Dems circa 2006 that he’d be seen as a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @minakimes: how can you watch stuff like that and not think Russ is the MVP though — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ClareMalone: 🎙️New (extra special bonus-length) pod🎙️: @NateSilver538 and @Nate_Cohn talk irl! 👨‍💼👨‍💼(Galen and I were there too, FWIW.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wow now here's one that would shake things up https://t.co/TF7COcwzgO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: NEWS: @DevalPatrick is considering a last-minute entry into the presidential race And his Mass allies are already putting o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, as the original reply said, this is at least partially canceled out by the addition of some older moderates. But in both states, the registered Democrats are best for Biden, suggesting that he may benefit a bit from closed primaries--like Clinton in '08/16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A similar story in Iowa. The unaffiliated IA voters who say they'll caucus are 49% under age 34. The reg Dems are 22%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our NC polling, the white unaff. voters who join the Dem primary electorate are 46% under age 34, compared to 20% of the reg Dem white voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why? The closed primaries tend to be older, since young voters are least likely to register with a party. This shields Biden from his biggest weakness Of course, IA is also open so this doesn't make NH worse for him than the other early states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It could, though in our NC polling, which is semi-open, Biden fares best among reg Dems and worst among the reg unaffiliated voters who say they'll vote in the Dem primary--and it's even more true with white voters https://t.co/vBVr1zJKxv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden up in New Hampshire. That's different I feel like most have assumed that Iowa's the better shot for him, but perhaps one could conjure an argument that the primary format and the divided field could be enough for him, as it was for Clinton '08 https://t.co/5AI9zZtwRU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

eyes emoji https://t.co/WO2Vl1H7G0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro Maybe I’m just on Twitter dot com too much but every time I need mention him I hear about how Wall Street loves him — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Booker is the one that really baffles me tbh. Klob does have more life in the polls, but Booker would seem to have the more natural route to knocking out a hypothetical zombie Biden bid (which is not what I think exists today, to be clear) https://t.co/pKTbqClmdU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: We shouldn't need a reminder of this, but here goes. While the country's elites in both parties would love to see a b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wish I had thought to check this! A nice tidbit to consider https://t.co/uihozPAe6B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AJentleson @jmartNYT @katieglueck just 11% of very liberal Dems are undecided, v. 32% of mod/conservative Dems, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AJentleson @jmartNYT @katieglueck well you'll have to ask the people who wrote the piece and adopted the frame. but looking at the data, the major explanatory factor is that the undecided voters are likeliest to be moderate/prefer moderates, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @b_schaffner: I looked back at the 2016 CCES to see if @Nate_Cohn's analysis was consistent with our data on the six states they examine… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AshleyKirzinger @jmartNYT @katieglueck Biden has a 20-4-4 lead among the self-ID'd Republicans in our poll, so that probably pads him a bit — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @katieglueck I would say the same thing about the demographics of these states. They're less educated than the country, which might have been a drag on Warren. OTOH they're a little whiter; maybe cancels it out. All in all, doesn't seem like a hugely different story here than the USA — PolitiTweet.org