Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's keep going-- in a Warren v Trump match up Biden supporters: Warren 85, Trump 6 (wouldn't vote 3) Sanders supporters: Warren 86, Trump 7 (wouldn't vote 2) Warren supporters: Warren 98, Trump 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And fwiw: Biden supporters: Biden 96, Trump 3 (wouldn't vote 0) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, Democratic voters in the big six states broke as follows in last month's Times/Siena polls: Warren supporters: Biden 93, Trump 2 (wouldn't vote, 1) Sanders supporters: Sanders 84, Trump 6 (wouldn't vote 5) https://t.co/8NDthgf2EL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Still true https://t.co/kBGZMYSwyW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not weighted by education, but impeachment at -7 in a Trump+13 district is a fairly decent marker for Dems, at least in a metropolitan CD like this https://t.co/8Nl1x74JAR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@trwilson99 @willminich well you can argue whatever you want! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know there are many takes on Biden's confrontation today but I would just like to note that Biden could have stayed more on brand by saying that the allegations were malarkey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@willminich well you ought to have the option to argue that British anger over seizing Oregon leads to UK intervention in the Civil War, subsequent confederate victory, and liberal reign in the northern US — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

it would be pretty hard for Dems to win 2016 with one more state in BC, folks! 2000 seems like it depends on exactly how they draw up the states, but if today's BC was one state I would think Nader would have had a very good chance to spoil it for Bush — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

it would be pretty hard for Dems to win 2020 with one more state in BC, folks! 2000 seems like it depends on exactly how they draw up the states, but if today's BC was one state I would think Nader would have had a very good chance to spoil it for Bush — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How would recent presidential elections have gone if 54'40 or fighters had won out and the US had seized all of Oregon territory from the UK in the 1840s (IE: British Columbia)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh i doubt it's about weighting, but though it does seem to line up with white no college, perhaps particularly rural voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh this doesn't make it true, but the civiqs numbers certainly come closer to the limited higher-quality polling that's out there https://t.co/DOOvrdqfSd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh it is certainly striking — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh if you believe it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you were House Dems, would you push forward on pursuing impeachment now, or would you pursue more testimony from Bolton/Mulvaney, etc. before charging the president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AliLapp @Seahawks the nyt simulator thinks the seahawks would be favored to win the division; tie breakers at that point are strength of victory and strength of schedule, and apparently those look seem likelier to be better for SEA at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though I will say that Biden has held his IA/NH support better after the Buttigieig surge than I would have guessed at the time I wrote this piece, and that leaves him better positioned as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And although I don't really get into post-IA/NH dynamics, it does seem to me that Sanders has more upside with nonwhite voters than the other non-Biden folks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This morning, I'm finding myself re-reading a piece I wrote a few weeks ago, and in particular the conclusion about Bernie. I don't know whether he can exploit the opening, but IDK if he could ask for the pieces to be better aligned https://t.co/GgikKAJ156 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SolomonMg @cskovron you're entitled to disagree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SolomonMg and, fwiw, AZ was also the state where trump's vote share was lowest, which could be worth looking at under some reasonable scenarios (perhaps especially those where it's all but stipulated that dems have won) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SolomonMg uh huh, as i said, it was clinton's second best state of the four. yet i think it's pretty easy to see the case for AZ, based on recent results, the trend in AZ (which does not make 2.3 pts look like a big cushion for FL), or polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SolomonMg ill-informed hipsters know incomplete results when they see them try nyt or uselectionatlas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SolomonMg it's not just our poll; cces/nep exit poll also trump approval lower in AZ, and dems won the house/sen vote there but not FL and the actual margin in AZ was 3.5 points. either way, it's not a huge gap w FL 2.5 (AZ swung 8 pts left with respect to FL in '16) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway I think there's a real debate here, and I think the Dem nominee would be a factor as well. But I think the case for AZ as best option is pretty straightforward, and I don't get why my newsfeed is dunking on it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Questionably informed contrarian hipsters note that AZ was Clinton's 2nd best state of the 4, Dems' best state in '18 House (also, sen.), a state where Dems would benefit from 70% turnout and, hey, the Dems' best state in our battleground polls last month https://t.co/BpTELwuM8C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers only voter file variables for completion, but: https://t.co/XoRS0htfUF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And all of this is very consistent with our estimates from over the summer: higher turnout is better for Democrats nationwide, but it's not so clear in the Rust Belt https://t.co/RoIMrjtQFV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers taking all states together here https://t.co/n8frCohALx — PolitiTweet.org